2007 NFL Rookie Fantasy Impact
posted in JaMarcus Russell, Michael Bush, Fantasy Football, 2007 Rookies, Brady Quinn, Marshawn Lynch, 2007 NFL Draft, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, NFL |
Editor’s note: War Room Report Fantasy Writer Justin Moore debuts with his first article. The War Room Report features several top writers who have participated in and won very competitive leagues.
With the NFL draft all wrapped up, it’s time to jump on the train and start prognosticating about who is going to drive our fantasy teams to the promised land in 2007. We’ll start this year with an incredibly early list of who will contribute and who won’t to your team this year.
JaMarcus Russell – Oakland didn’t trade for Josh McCown for nothing. Even though he’s not very good, he’s going to start under center in September. By the time McCown loses his 6th or 7th game, look for Russell to start taking snaps to build rapport and timing with Mike Williams, Ronald Curry and maybe even Doug Gabriel.
Calvin Johnson – Jon Kitna gets the rock this year, while Drew Stanton learns. Don’t forget Roy Williams is no slouch and he and Kitna did pretty well together last year. With Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, and TJ Duckett splitting carries, Detroit has the potential to have a rather significant offense this year, which Johnson will contribute to significantly, but with Mike Furrey still playing a role, don’t expect 1,000 yards from the rookie…this year.
Adrian Peterson – Fantasy ‘experts’ were all about Chester Taylor last year. Then some of them figured out he just couldn’t handle the load of a full season. With second year QB Tavaris Jackson likely winning the job out of camp, there will be a bit of a learning curve while everyone gels. Expect a RBBC to happen in Minnesota, and considering they’re not a particularly good team, Peterson isn’t much more than a flex player or 3rd RB.
Ted Ginn Jr. – Everyone’s talking about ‘the foot’. It’s already been said he’s not going to be ready for mini-camp. How long will this injury linger? With question marks all over Miami’s offense to include Daunte Culpepper, the possibility of signing Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, the drafting of John Beck, the possibility of losing Marty Booker, and Chris Chambers underachievement, this offense as a whole is probably the biggest question mark right now. If everything were to gel (which it won’t), Ginn would at best be the #2 WR, but more likely the #3 on this squad in his rookie year. If you draft him in your league, make sure it’s a late round and keep an eye out for any other WR who’s going to catch more than 600 yards and 4 TDs.
Marshawn Lynch – Lynch fell into a pretty good situation in Buffalo. As much as everyone loves to hate J.P. Losman, he finally started to figure it out in the second half of last year. He bonded with Lee Evans and threw more TDs (19) than INTs (14) to garner a passer rating around 85. Willis McGahee is out of town and Anthony Thomas is everyone’s fall-back when he needs to be. Lynch will probably be a 1st and 2nd down back with Thomas getting the conversion yards until the rook figures out the speed of the NFL and makes sure he can catch a few passes out of the backfield. If Buffalo continues to come together offensively, Lynch has ROY potential.
Brady Quinn – Everyone knows this kid got robbed on draft day. Miami stole his lunch money by not taking him at 9, and then Cleveland grinned and drafted him at 22, cutting his salary by 50% or more. Even with all the emotional fallout from that, Quinn could be the starting QB for the Browns on opening day. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are scrubs, and neither one of them is significant enough to learn from, so while the Browns start their rebuilding phase this year, Quinn should start all 16 games. Aside from Kellen Winslow, whose knee is still acting up, Braylon Edwards is the only reliable receiver. Jamal Lewis won’t do much better than he did in Baltimore last year, so expect Quinn to take his lumps with not enough help around him. I wouldn’t draft this guy in ANY format unless he was the last QB available and I needed to cover a bye.
Dwayne Bowe – There are still question marks as to who will be taking the snaps in KC this year. There are also rumors that LJ might get traded. That being said, Eddie Kennison can still put up decent numbers, so he’ll be fighting Samie Parker for the #2 slot here. If Trent Green isn’t still with the team this season, as expected, Bowe isn’t going to be of much use to anyone in 2007.
Robert Meachem – Joe Horn is out of town, so Marques Colston is now “officially” the guy in NO. The rest of the receiving corps fluctuates from week to week as far as production goes, and I see Meachem doing the same thing this year. Depending on how he comes out of preseason on the depth chart, he’s not going to be reliable enough to predict his 1 catch games vs his two 8 catch games he’ll have.
Craig Davis – Another tall, 200+ pound WR on a team that needs an identity at the position. The offense churns behind LT, and Philip Rivers sort of proved he is the man. I say sort of because they had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year. Since Parker and Jackson didn’t show much, Davis could have an opportunity to supplant Antonio Gates as the team’s top pass catcher. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen this year. He’ll be a good late round pick to plug into a flex spot if you didn’t get that extra RB, but don’t count on him every week.
Greg Olsen – As long as Rex Grossman is in town, you never know what you’re going to get. Olsen is going to be one of those sexy pass catching TEs. That just means that with one less man on the line, Grossman is going to get hurried more, which will mean either Cedric Benson and/or Olsen is going to see an up tick on check-down passes. He’ll split time with Desmond Clark, and with the TE position getting deeper every year, this guy will probably get drafted by your fantasy opponents a lot sooner than he needs to.
Anthony Gonzalez – As long as Harrison and Wayne are still doing their thing, you can’t rely on a 3rd WR in Indy for any reason. That being said, if either one of them gets hurt for any amount of time, make sure Gonzalez is on your roster unless you’re stacked at WR.
Chris Henry – After losing Travis Henry, who kind of surprised everyone last year, question marks were all over Tennessee’s backfield. LenDale White seems like a has-been before he was ever any good. If he doesn’t get in shape and stop getting hurt, Henry could very well start right away. Unfortunately, with no WRs to speak of, defenses are going to key on Vince Young and whoever is in the backfield. Draft him as a keeper, but don’t be upset when 2007 isn’t his year.
Brian Leonard – Everyone seems to see a lot of skill in this guy, and I’m sure he has some, but with all those WRs and Steven Jackson learning to catch the ball last year, he’s not going to contribute to anyone’s fantasy team at all. Except that one random game where he’ll score 3TDs.
Paul Williams – He was drafted in the third round, and with no one of any significance at WR left in Tennessee, he could emerge as the #2 on that team, making him a minor sleeper.
Michael Bush – Another keeper league candidate. LaMont Jordan was so terrible last year, I almost went to Oakland to try to walk-on. They turned around and signed Dominic Rhodes in the off-season, and the starter will be whoever does better out of preseason and/or doesn’t get hurt. Michael Bush could sneak past one of those two on the depth chart and split carries all year behind the porous OL. Don’t expect much, though.
Antonio Pittman – Deuce and Reggie? Oh yea. Forget this guy until that game or three that Deuce has to sit out for some leg malady.
Brandon Jackson – Verand Morency isn’t very good. Neither are any of the other clowns the Packers have in the backfield. I wonder if they targeted Jackson in the second round or just missed out on the top tier guys, so they just took whatever was available in Round 2. They say he’s a bit small and not as fast as one would like, but if he gains some weight, he’ll be able to deal with all the hits he’s going to take in the NFL. He can also catch the ball a little bit, so this guy is going to be the one no one talks about because everyone thinks he’s a sleeper. Just because of the situation he’s in, he could end up being a top 3 rookie RB this year, but I’m not sure if he’s going to get 1,000 yards.
