The odds are stacked against John Beck and other Round 2 QBs.

One of the War Room Report writers, Justin Davis, spelled out his theory on drafting a quarterback earlier this year. After seeing Philadelphia, Miami, and Detroit target 2nd round QBs in Kevin Kolb, John Beck, and Drew Stanton, I thought it would be an interesting theory to test.

The Davis Theory:

“If you want a QB, go up to Round 1 and take one of the top guys. If not, you are wasting a pick”

What do the results show? Did the Dolphins, Eagles, and Lions make a mistake?

I studied the 1998-2005 drafts, ignoring the 2006 and 2007 draft as it is too early to draw any conclusions. Below are the results. Some of the categories could be disputed, but the results are clear.

QBs taken in Round 2 +

79 selected

Successes:
Tom Brady
Matt Hasselback
Drew Brees
Marc Bulger (4/79) (5%)

Possible/marginal successes:
Brian Griese
Aaron Brooks
Chris Simms
Matt Schaub (4/79) (5%)

So if you wait until after Rd 1, you have a 10% chance of getting an Aaron Brooks type and a 90% chance of getting someone worse.

QBs selected in Round 1

23 selected

Successes:
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Donovan Mcnabb
Peyton Manning (4/23) (17%)

Potential/Marginal successes:
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
Chad Pennington
Daunte Culpepper (10/23) (43%)

So if you take a QB in Round 1, you have a 60% chance of getting a Chad Pennington type, with a higher % of getting a Manning esque player. You even have a 50% greater chance of getting a Manning or Palmer than you do of getting an Aaron Brooks if you wait.

Furthermore, of the projected starters in the 2007 season, below are the draft positions:

Round 1: 17 (53.1%)
Round 2: 3 (9.4%)
Round 3: 4 (12.5)
Round 4-7: 3 (9.4%)
Undrafted: 5 (15.6%)

So the odds are stacked in the favor of a team drafting their starting QB in Round 1. The only QBs currently starting that were drafted in Round 2 are:

Brett Favre (1991)
Drew Brees (2001)
Tavaris Jackson (2006)

It should be noted that Favre and Brees were drafted 33rd and 32nd overall respectively.

The odds are distinctly against Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, or John Beck succeeding. All three have positive qualities that may allow them to succeed, but they would be going against recent history.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 4th, 2007 at 9:26 am and is filed under Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, 2007 NFL Draft, NFL. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.