26th September 2007

Early Heisman Leaders

 

Matt Ryan

Credit: Greg Drzazgowski/Icon SMI

Four weeks of the college season are in the bag, and several Heisman candidates are out of the running due to their team’s early failures. I’m looking at you Brian Brohm and Chad Henne. Still, at this juncture, the best performers are likely not to be there at the end of the season due to their team’s suffering losses in conference play.

So who is still alive? USC is still undefeated, as expected, and John David Booty has put up solid, if not spectacular numbers. He has been very efficient, but is averaging just 213 yards per game. Booty still remains the favorite in my eyes, due the USC having the best chance of running the table.

LSU and Oklahoma do not have true stars on the offensive side of the ball, which probably cancels them out. Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin have been terrific for Florida, and if they can manage to go undefeated in the SEC, both would get consideration. However, it is almost impossible for a true sophomore to win th award.

The West Virginia duo of Steve Slaton and Pat White have been phenomenal and will likely continue to shine. If WVU can defeat South Florida this week, the Mountaineer players take a big step forward, but still run the risk of “splitting” the vote

Cal’s Desean Jackson has gotten a lot of hype and looked good in the national game against Tennessee. However, his receiving stats leave something to be desired. The game against USC will determine his fate.

Wisconsin’s P.J. Hill has been solid, but is likely to run into some bias of a weak Big Ten conference. If Rutgers can win the Big East, Ray Rice looks like a shoe in for the top 5 in voting. Hawaii’s Colt Brennan is putting up video game numbers, but missing last week’s game with a sprained ankle pushes him off of the top five for now.

However the two biggest risers in the early season at the QBs for a pair of undefeated teams - Andre Woodson and Matt Ryan. Woodson has led the Wildcats up to #14 in the polls and has received a lot of attention. A victory over LSU or Florida would catapult Woodson to the top of the pack.

Boston College’s Matt Ryan has really impressed me so far this season. He is a much better player than I ever thought. NFLdraftdog’s Robert Bryant has always loved Ryan, but the Golden Eagles look to have a strong chance in the ACC and he has blossomed under coach Jeff Jagodzinski’s system.

If Ryan can run the table in the ACC - no easy task with games at Clemson and Virginia Tech, he might just bring the Heisman back to Boston College for the first time in 23 years.

A pair of QBs off to hot starts also join our top five - Oregon’s Dennis Dixon has 11 TDs and 0 INTs, while Purdue’s Curtis Painter is invoking memories of Drew Brees with an incredible 16 TD to 1 INT for the undefeated Boilermakers.

While Desean Jackson is getting a lot of attention, the best WR so far this season has been Texas Tech wide out Michael Crabtree, who is on pace for a record season. Like many of the top players so far, Crabtree’s success is going to be tied to his team’s. Crabtree also lacks the pre-season hype typically needed to win the award.

The Week 4 Heisman top five:

1. Matt Ryan, BC, QB
2. Andre Woodson, Kentucky, QB
3. Curtis Painter, Purdue, QB
4. Dennis Dixon, Oregon, QB
5. Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech, WR

posted in Andre Woodson, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Desean Jackson, 2008 NFL Draft, Darren McFadden, College Football | 5 Comments

11th September 2007

2008 NFL Draft - Week Two Roundup

 

Dennis Dixon

In a blur of upsets and great finishes week #2 of the College Football season is in the books and Matt MacCoy, War Room Report Analyst and Lead Offensive Scout takes a look back at the noteworthy performances from this past weekend’s games and who’s stock might be “rising”, “falling”, or who’s stock remains “status quo”:

Before I get to the evaluation of week #2 and the stock of many pro prospects I have a few things I would like to get off my chest:

  • If I hear this question posed one more time on one of ESPN’s tiring, re-tread shows ala “Cold Pizza” or “First and 10”, or whatever they are calling the monstrosity now I’m going to jump through my TV set and strangle Skip Bayless—the question being which Head Coach is under more pressure: Charlie Weis or Lloyd Carr? I am far from a genius, but I think I know an illogical question when I hear one. The Michigan Wolverines entered into the 2007 season with a 4-year starting senior QB Chad Henne, senior RB Mike Hart, and All-American offensive tackle Jake Long returning to make one more run at a Big Ten title and a possible National Championship only to lose to Division I-AA Appalachian State in one of the biggest upsets in college football history, and turn around a week later and get destroyed by Oregon 39-6, both games in the “Big House.” The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the 2007 season hoping for a winning season and possible bowl game appearance. They lost their QB Brady Quinn, RB Darius Walker, their top two options at WR Jeff Samardjiza and Rhema McKnight, top offensive lineman Ryan Harris, and top defensive lineman DE Victor Abiamiri. They are now starting a true freshman at QB in Jimmy Clausen, and while he has a very bright future, it is anticipated that he will struggle early. They lost to a respectable Georgia Tech team, and then in Happy Valley against Penn State. The major difference here is expectations—the Wolverines were gunning for a National Title, the Irish are in an obvious rebuilding season, and both teams have produced the same results. The Wolverines are the far more disappointing team, and following the 2007 season Charlie Weis will still have his job, the same I can not say for one Lloyd Carr.
  • If you went to bed early Saturday night you missed a thrilling ending to the Auburn vs. South Florida game. As I was watching the game one thought kept ringing through my head: “I don’t believe I have ever seen a game where one team tried to give away the game to this extent, while the other team refused to take it from them.” If you missed it, let me briefly recap—the Auburn Tigers converted only 2/13 on 3rd down conversions, all while turning the ball over FIVE times to South Florida. South Florida took the ball in turn, got into scoring range only for place kicker Delbert Alvarado to miss FOUR field goals. It was one of those jaw-dropping games where you just couldn’t believe what you were seeing. From a prospect point of view Brandon Cox is too shaky to make it to the next level, and is lucky there isn’t a suitable backup QB waiting in the wings or he would lose his starting job. Matt Grothe, who is only a sophomore, has got “it”. The coaching staff seemed to lose confidence in every player on the field besides Grothe at the end of the game. He is only 6’0 and 200 pounds, but he has some leadership qualities you have to like in a young QB. He needs some work, but he reminds me of a young Drew Brees.

Now that I got that off my chest, let’s move on to the up and down world that is “The Prospect Stock Market”:

RISING:

DeSean Jackson WR California: If you haven’t caught on that Jackson is the most exciting player in America you don’t have a pulse. On a day when his QB Nate Longshore wasn’t at his best, Jackson did it again with a 73-yard RUSHING TD. Yes critics, he is still undersized, but if that is your only concern, than you’re missing out. He will be a playmaker at the next level, I am sold on this.

Oklahoma Sooners: They thoroughly dominated the University of Miami (FL) on Saturday and put the rest of College Football on notice that this team is dangerous. I was very impressed with the Offensive Line of the Sooners who handled DE Calais Campbell and Co. pretty well up front; it will be interesting if any top-notch prospects emerge from this group. I was also very impressed with the Sooners’ pair of wide receivers Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias. Iglesias may be the 2007 version of Anthony Gonzalez, he may be overshadowed by his teammate Kelly, but he is precise route runner and might workout very well and his stock might “rise”. Malcolm Kelly is very smooth and seems to make plays effortlessly; if I had to make a comparison to a player at the next level he reminds me a lot of Javon Walker.

LSU Tigers: I apologize to the entire state of Louisiana; I vastly underrated the LSU Tigers. After watching their first game this season I thought the play calling was too conservative and would bite them against Virginia Tech, oh how I was wrong. LSU has speed all over the field and will cause match-up problems for virtually every team they will encounter in 2007. Early Doucet stretches the field and the defense has to respect his speed up top, and in doing so leaves gapping holes for the Tigers other offensive weapons. All the props in the world to LSU, however, I still don’t see them in the National Championship. The lack of a ‘true’ #1 tailback and the blistering schedule they will have to endure in the SEC makes it very difficult for me to believe they will go unbeaten. They might be the 2nd best team in the country, but I don’t think they will make it to their ultimate goal.

South Carolina Gamecocks: Steve Spurrier took his his South Carolina squad on the road in the SEC and beat a legit top 15 team. This is noteworthy in itself, and why some believe it is preposterous to think that South Carolina can win the SEC, no one gave Duke a chance to win the ACC either and Spurrier succeeded in that venture as well.

Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech: He was playing against Samford this week and hung 110 and 2 touchdowns on them before being taken out of the game, but the week before he rushed for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns against Notre Dame. He isn’t very flashy, and is floating under the radar somewhat, but if he continues to produce at this rate he won’t be under the radar for long.

Dennis Dixon QB Oregon: He is not much of a pro prospect at this point, in fact he is probably a future major league baseball player, but how can you not be impressed by his performance in Ann Arbor last Saturday. He looked like Vince Young in the Rose Bowl, he dominated with his arm, and then with his legs. If the baseball thing doesn’t work out, he could become a later round draft pick in the NFL.

Chase Daniel QB Missouri: The competition thus far has not had the stingiest of defenses (Illinois and Ole Miss), but you have to be impressed with Daniel’s productivity and versatility. He is on pace for approximately 4,400 total yards and 48 touchdowns in the regular season. He is another prospect listed just at 6’0, so that is a major cause for concern, but he is a prospect to keep your eyes on at the very least.

Jamaal Charles RB Texas: Jamaal Charles is currently ranked 5th on the War Room Report running back rankings, higher than most other publications, and for good reason. He has an exceptional initial burst and above average build and his production is showing up so far in the 2007 season. The TCU front seven is as tough as they come in college football and Charles averaged 6.1 yards per carry on Saturday rushing for 134 yards and a TD in the effort. The Longhorns don’t really focus Charles in the offense, so his numbers may never be eye-popping, but rest assured he is a very solid prospect.

James Hardy WR Indiana: Coming into the 2007 season it was a question mark whether James Hardy was even going to be able to play early on due to injury. Well, he has played and has only recorded six catches, but he has made the most out of them, turning those six catches into FOUR touchdowns and a 30.0 yard average. As the season progresses you will see more catches and consistency from Hardy, but he is a home run threat if nothing more.

STATUS QUO:

Brian Brohm QB Louisville: Another 400 yards passing a 4 touchdowns. Still the consensus #1 overall selection in my view, and he might be garnering some Heisman momentum.

Ray Rice RB Rutgers: He is what he is, one of the most reliable running backs in the collegiate game today.

Steve Slaton RB West Virginia: West Virginia got away from what they like to do in the first half and got themselves into trouble. You know what you are WVU, you want to run the ball with Slaton and White. Run the ball with your two studs, roll them up in bubble wrap after every game, avoid either getting injured, and you’ll be in the National Championship game. Slaton took over the game in the 2nd half on Saturday; his end game stats were 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Calais Campbell DE Miami (FL) and Kenny Phillips S Miami (FL): Both players made a few solid plays, but Oklahoma hung 51 points on your defense. Two top-flight pro prospects should step up their game and not allow this to happen, and obviously this did not occur. Their draft status doesn’t change following this game, but it is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Curtis Painter QB Purdue: Is he a product of the system? He has an NFL ready body, the size scouts look for, and so there is debate here. Workouts will be of most importance for Painter.

Matt Ryan QB Boston College: Another solid performance by Ryan. I don’t see any glaring weaknesses. I am really interested to see how he does against some better defenses.

Andre Woodson QB Kentucky: Another guy who has an excellent chance to impress when he gets into the heart of the SEC schedule. He doesn’t make mistakes either, doesn’t throw interceptions, and seems completely at ease with the offense at UK.

Colt Brennan QB Hawaii: Almost 1,000 yards passing in two games and a 10:1 TD: INT ratio is excellent, but more impressively is that they gutted out a tough victory on Saturday against Louisiana Tech.

FALLING:

Sam Keller QB Nebraska: He is just too inconsistent for my liking. Some plays he looks great, some he looks as if he has no idea what is going on out there. He is beginning to remind me a lot of Kyle Boller, and this is not a good thing. This was a big year for Keller to impress the scouts, and there is still time, but his biggest problem is consistency, if this doesn’t improve almost nothing else will matter.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Yes, the good news is they are off to a 2-0 start, but anyone who watched last weeks game against Akron can tell you that there is just something wrong with this team. Whether it is the lack of a passing game or the fact that they are just missing so many parts from their offense a year ago, this is not a good football team NOW, but with such a soft early schedule they have time to iron some things out.

Michigan Wolverines: You know the story, you have seen the games, and you draw your own conclusion.

Boise State Broncos: The Broncos lost and broke their winning streak on Saturday. Ian Johnson couldn’t get anything going with the running game, and they just didn’t seem to be in sync all day.

Virginia Tech’s Defense: Vince Hall and Co. disappointed Saturday. The Hokies were beaten in every facet of the game, even in their forte of defense and special teams.

PJ Hill RB Wisconsin: I might be too critical of PJ Hill, but then again I wasn’t the one telling everyone who would listen how he had slimmed down and was going to be more explosive. He ran for 147 yards on Saturday night, and while that is all well and good the productivity from Hill has never been the question mark, the quickness and initial burst has been and I might be the only person in America who is so critical of him, but in two games, I have yet to see it.

posted in Chad Henne, Andre Woodson, Colt Brennan, Desean Jackson, 2008 NFL Draft, Brian Brohm, College Football | 0 Comments

6th September 2007

2008 NFL Draft - Week One Offensive Roundup

Brian Brohm

Week #1 of the College Football season is in the books and Matt MacCoy, War Room Report Analyst and Lead Offensive Scout takes a look back at the noteworthy performances from this past weekend’s games and who’s stock might be “rising”, “falling”, or who’s stock remains “status quo”:

RISING:
Brian Brohm QB Louisville: The early favorite to be the #1 overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft didn’t disappoint in his 2007 debut. Displaying accuracy and the ability to make the big play he turned his 16 completions into a whopping 375 yards and seems to be making a smooth transition to any changes that may have been made in the coaching switch from Bobby Petrino to Steve Kragthorpe. I understand the performance was against Murray State, so we shouldn’t go overboard with excitement, but to see Brohm in mid-season form and showing no residual effects from his injury last season is an excellent sign.

Colt Brennan QB Hawaii: I realize that Northern Colorado may not have a Division I caliber defense, but throwing for 416 yards and 6 TDs—virtually of which was in the first half is still stunning. Look, I get the arguments, the guy is from a pass-happy offense and he is on the smallish side…duly noted. Colt Brennan isn’t Timmy Chang, and he isn’t David Klinger or any other pass-crazy, non pro-prospect reference you want to throw out there. He is freakishly accurate with his passes, displayed by his 34 of 40 performance on Saturday night…yes that is an 85% completion percentage. He needs to bulk up, and needs to show he can take snaps under center and still remain as accurate, but you are looking at a 1st rounder in the 2008 Draft at this point.

DeSean Jackson WR California: The kid needs to bulk up…that is all. He is as an electrifying a player that college football has to offer and for per touch excitement, only Reggie Bush and Devin Hester come to mind when explaining how skilled Jackson is. He’s not a kick returner playing wide receiver ala Ted Ginn Jr., he is a wide receiver with breathtaking abilities as a return man. As the draft approaches I’m sure we will here the critics break him down due to his size, and their fear that he won’t hold up at the next level. The fears are legit, but drafting DeSean Jackson gives you a Steve Smith or Santana Moss type player on offense RIGHT NOW.

Andre Woodson QB Kentucky: His stock is going to continue to rise until his name is mentioned in debate around draft circles whether a team would be better off drafting him or Brian Brohm. Andre Woodson needs to solidify such hyperbole by showing up in the big games in the SEC, and some wins in these games wouldn’t hurt, but 20 of 29 for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns to no interceptions is a good start.

Ben Olsen QB UCLA: Now is the time for the former prep star to realize his potential. If he can stay away from injuries he can lead this team to some big wins. He has the attributes the NFL scouts covet, and throwing 5 touchdowns in his 2007 debut put everyone in the Pac 10 on alert. I would like to his completion percentage escalate to some degree, but right now, I’m nitpicking.

Steve Slaton RB West Virginia: He is not a complete back quite yet, and he will need some work at the next level, as well as to bulk up a little bit, that being said, he is the most exciting RB in the country Darren McFadden included. Every time Steve Slaton touches the ball your on the edge of your seat thinking he is going to go the distance, and on many occasions he does just that. If he can display improvement in catching the football out of the backfield, he will rival McFadden for the top selection of a RB in the 2008 Draft.

STATUS QUO:
John David Booty QB USC: The Heisman favorite had a ho-hum 206 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Idaho on Saturday. Nothing to get too excited about, but if you were USC would you get that excited about playing Idaho? His overall performances will get better, but he remains the favorite for the Heisman and a first-day selection.

Darren McFadden RB Arkansas: With a 151 yards rushing and a TD plus a 42-yard TD pass, Darren McFadden made the country well aware that he is the most versatile back in the country and still second to none at the position when it comes to his draft status. Steve Slaton may be on his heels, but with performances like this, McFadden will keep him at bay.

Ray Rice RB Rutgers: 25 carries for 184 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ray Rice is the workhorse for the Rutgers offense, this is well known. After his tremendous sophomore campaign it is tough to impress. He may not be as dynamic or talented as Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton, but Ray Rice gives you steady production at the position, and in this class, 3rd RB is no slap in the face.

Matt Ryan QB Boston College: Matt Ryan has displayed a complete control of the Boston College offense. 408 yards and 5 touchdowns are pretty impressive considering they were against defending ACC Champion Wake Forest. I’m not sure how high Ryan’s ‘ceiling’ is as far as his draft potential goes, but with consistent performances in 2007 his name will be in the mix as the 4th-5th QB to come off the board.

Erik Ainge QB Tennessee: Some scouts are down on Erik Ainge entering the 2007 season, but I am not one of them. His performance on Saturday was a solid outing. With a running game that is below par and wide receiver options that are unfamiliar Ainge still managed to go 32 of 47 for 271 yards with 3 touchdowns to no interceptions in a hostile Golden Bear crowd, all with a broken finger. I know he has less mobility than the Statue of Liberty, but the kid can throw from the pocket and he is accurate and can make all the throws you could want. This might be high praise, but at the end of the day I see more Carson Palmer then Byron Leftwich in Erik Ainge.

Ian Johnson RB Boise State: As far as college running backs go this guy is a stud. His off-season workouts, especially speed and agility drills are going to be of great importance to Ian Johnson. He is tough as nails, and there is a lot to like about the guy, but again, just not sure how high his potential ‘ceiling’ is.

Felix Jones RB Arkansas: 12 rushes for 129 yards and a TD. Another 10 yard+ average game for Jones, but he remains overshadowed by teammate Darren McFadden. I am afraid people don’t realize how good Jones is.

FALLING:
Michigan Wolverines: After the stunning defeat vs. Appalachian State the Wolverines have seen the 2007 season go down in flames and now some of their potential high round picks are going to have their abilities questioned. Jake Long and Mike Hart had solid performances so their stock should remain about where it was prior to the game. However, I’m concerned about Chad Henne and Mario Manningham. Henne connected on only 51.4% of his passes vs. Appalachian State? This sends up ‘red flags’ for me. You expect in his senior season your QB to step up and save the day in such a situation, and Henne played well in the 4th quarter, but it was too little too late for me. Manningham had only 3 catches for 66 yards, and 1 was the 46-yarder that came in that desperation heave. The Wolverines need to bounce back, and bounce back quick.

Oklahoma State: The supposed “Greatest Offense in the World” fell flat on its face on Saturday against Georgia. They looked out of sync for most of the ball game. Adarius Bowman had an ok performance and has the tools to succeed at the next level, so only slight concern surrounding him, but as far as Bobby Reid and Dantrell Savage goes, they need excellent 2007 seasons to impress the scouts, and they got off on the wrong foot on Saturday, another team that needs to turn it around in a hurry.

Early Doucet WR LSU: What I saw from the LSU Tigers offense in their first game I did not like. They seemed to have very conservative play calling, and in order to display the skills of a top WR like Doucet, they need to open up the playbook a bit more and have more down field passing. His end game numbers, 9 catches for 78 yards and a TD are ok, but just watching the offense, if the play calling remains the same, Doucet could be in for some poor performances in 2007.

Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon: A War Room Report favorite struggled out of the gates, having two teammates rush for more yards than him. I would personally like to see the Oregon coaching staff feature him more in 2007, give him more carries. He is a bruising tailback that should be able to wear down defenses by the time the 4th quarter rolls around, I’m just not sure if 14 touches a game is going to get it down. I would like to see his workload doubled.

Courtney Tennial RB Tulsa: The former Oklahoma product did not play in Week 1 and it was announced that he will miss the entire 2007 season with an ankle injury suffered in pre-season drills. Tennial has been a hard luck player since entering college, being stuck behind Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma and now suffering this injury. Despite the fact that he has only been a featured back for one year, Tennial will have to petition the NCAA for a 6th year of eligibility if he hopes to play in 2008.

OTHER PERFORMANCES OF NOTE:
Omar Cuff RB Delaware: Omar Cuff tied a Division I-AA record when he rushed for 7 touchdowns against William & Mary in the opener. He recorded 296 yards of offense to boot. He is a versatile, speedy back and could build momentum to a possible draft selection.

posted in Colt Brennan, Chad Henne, Andre Woodson, Omar Cuff, Desean Jackson, Jake Long, 2008 NFL Draft, Darren McFadden, Brian Brohm, NFL | 4 Comments

30th July 2007

2008 Quarterback Rankings

The War Room Report has published our first round of rankings for the 2008 NFL Draft. We started with the quarterback class, which is strong in 2008 and much deeper than previous drafts, especially if a few of the top juniors come out.

Brian Brohm is our easy #1, as he is on almost every list of the top 2008 QB Prospects. Brohm is one of the few prospects who can realstically be considered for the #1 overall spot come next April, with his combination of arm strength, accuracy, and experience. However, one wonders if he will suffer from the same nitpicking that Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart have in recent seasons. Both entered their senior season as the #1 QB on the board, but saw others pass them before the draft. Brohm has a host of players to hold off and any holes in his game will be sure to be picked apart during the season and pre-draft process.

While choosing our #1 QB prospect was easy, there was considerable disagreement about the remainder of the board. In the end we only had to go about an hour east to Lexington to find our #2 ranked QB in Andre Woodson from Kentucky. Woodson is a strong armed player who has flourished under Rich Brooks. He really stepped it up in his junior season, throwing for 31 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions. He leads a potent offense at Kentucky that features prospects Rafael Little, Keenan Burton, and Jacob Tamme and will get ample opportunity to pass behind a poor defense.

The #3 spot in the rankings goes to prolific Hawaii QB Colt Brennan. While most of the main stream media will focus on the questions about Brennan being a “system quarterback” and solely a product of June Jones’ run and shoot, that is not the real concern. Brennan has a stronger arm than many other run and shoot QBs and a quick release. The Timmy Chang comparisons are not relevant and frankly a little bit lazy. The real concern is how Brennan’s body will handle the pounding of the NFL. Listed at 6′3 and 196, Brennan is going to have to prove to scouts that he can function at the NFL level. The size concerns could be alleviated by strong workouts or favorable measurements at the pre-draft camps, but Brennan may still slide down draft boards and have to wait for his chance to compete for an NFL job.

Chad Henne of Michigan will be in the top 3 on many pre season draft boards, but concerns about his mobility have dropped him on the War Room Report rankings. There are no concerns about his arm strength, which is at an elite level. Henne should get a chance to shine in 2007 on a very talented Michigan offense. He should shine in off-season workouts and is very likely to go higher than ranked here. He certainly has the physical tools to be a first round draft pick.

Erik Ainge is probably the quarterback that our scouts were split on the most. Some had him ranked 2nd behind Brohm, while others dropped him even further down than 5th. His supporters point to an outstanding junior season, his first with David Cutcliffe, and his strong arm. His detractors argue his flaws are much like Henne’s - below average mobility. They also question rather he has the accuracy to succeed at the NFL level. His performance during the ‘07 season will go a long way to determine his draft status.

It is very early to be projecting the 2008 NFL Draft and our rankings are just guidelines for the start of the season. We have only ranked 10 players to start the season, and the rankings will likely change during the season as players are evaluated. Never the less, it is a fun exercise to kick start the 2008 NFL Draft Season.

Feel free to comment below!

posted in Chad Henne, Andre Woodson, Colt Brennan, Brian Brohm, 2008 NFL Draft, College Football | 2 Comments