Editor’s note: War Room Report Fantasy Writer Justin Moore debuts with his first article. The War Room Report features several top writers who have participated in and won very competitive leagues.

With the NFL draft all wrapped up, it’s time to jump on the train and start prognosticating about who is going to drive our fantasy teams to the promised land in 2007. We’ll start this year with an incredibly early list of who will contribute and who won’t to your team this year.

JaMarcus Russell – Oakland didn’t trade for Josh McCown for nothing. Even though he’s not very good, he’s going to start under center in September. By the time McCown loses his 6th or 7th game, look for Russell to start taking snaps to build rapport and timing with Mike Williams, Ronald Curry and maybe even Doug Gabriel.

Calvin Johnson – Jon Kitna gets the rock this year, while Drew Stanton learns. Don’t forget Roy Williams is no slouch and he and Kitna did pretty well together last year. With Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, and TJ Duckett splitting carries, Detroit has the potential to have a rather significant offense this year, which Johnson will contribute to significantly, but with Mike Furrey still playing a role, don’t expect 1,000 yards from the rookie…this year.

Adrian Peterson – Fantasy ‘experts’ were all about Chester Taylor last year. Then some of them figured out he just couldn’t handle the load of a full season. With second year QB Tavaris Jackson likely winning the job out of camp, there will be a bit of a learning curve while everyone gels. Expect a RBBC to happen in Minnesota, and considering they’re not a particularly good team, Peterson isn’t much more than a flex player or 3rd RB.

Ted Ginn Jr. – Everyone’s talking about ‘the foot’. It’s already been said he’s not going to be ready for mini-camp. How long will this injury linger? With question marks all over Miami’s offense to include Daunte Culpepper, the possibility of signing Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, the drafting of John Beck, the possibility of losing Marty Booker, and Chris Chambers underachievement, this offense as a whole is probably the biggest question mark right now. If everything were to gel (which it won’t), Ginn would at best be the #2 WR, but more likely the #3 on this squad in his rookie year. If you draft him in your league, make sure it’s a late round and keep an eye out for any other WR who’s going to catch more than 600 yards and 4 TDs.

Marshawn Lynch – Lynch fell into a pretty good situation in Buffalo. As much as everyone loves to hate J.P. Losman, he finally started to figure it out in the second half of last year. He bonded with Lee Evans and threw more TDs (19) than INTs (14) to garner a passer rating around 85. Willis McGahee is out of town and Anthony Thomas is everyone’s fall-back when he needs to be. Lynch will probably be a 1st and 2nd down back with Thomas getting the conversion yards until the rook figures out the speed of the NFL and makes sure he can catch a few passes out of the backfield. If Buffalo continues to come together offensively, Lynch has ROY potential.

Brady Quinn – Everyone knows this kid got robbed on draft day. Miami stole his lunch money by not taking him at 9, and then Cleveland grinned and drafted him at 22, cutting his salary by 50% or more. Even with all the emotional fallout from that, Quinn could be the starting QB for the Browns on opening day. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are scrubs, and neither one of them is significant enough to learn from, so while the Browns start their rebuilding phase this year, Quinn should start all 16 games. Aside from Kellen Winslow, whose knee is still acting up, Braylon Edwards is the only reliable receiver. Jamal Lewis won’t do much better than he did in Baltimore last year, so expect Quinn to take his lumps with not enough help around him. I wouldn’t draft this guy in ANY format unless he was the last QB available and I needed to cover a bye.

Dwayne Bowe – There are still question marks as to who will be taking the snaps in KC this year. There are also rumors that LJ might get traded. That being said, Eddie Kennison can still put up decent numbers, so he’ll be fighting Samie Parker for the #2 slot here. If Trent Green isn’t still with the team this season, as expected, Bowe isn’t going to be of much use to anyone in 2007.

Robert Meachem – Joe Horn is out of town, so Marques Colston is now “officially” the guy in NO. The rest of the receiving corps fluctuates from week to week as far as production goes, and I see Meachem doing the same thing this year. Depending on how he comes out of preseason on the depth chart, he’s not going to be reliable enough to predict his 1 catch games vs his two 8 catch games he’ll have.

Craig Davis – Another tall, 200+ pound WR on a team that needs an identity at the position. The offense churns behind LT, and Philip Rivers sort of proved he is the man. I say sort of because they had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year. Since Parker and Jackson didn’t show much, Davis could have an opportunity to supplant Antonio Gates as the team’s top pass catcher. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen this year. He’ll be a good late round pick to plug into a flex spot if you didn’t get that extra RB, but don’t count on him every week.

Greg Olsen – As long as Rex Grossman is in town, you never know what you’re going to get. Olsen is going to be one of those sexy pass catching TEs. That just means that with one less man on the line, Grossman is going to get hurried more, which will mean either Cedric Benson and/or Olsen is going to see an up tick on check-down passes. He’ll split time with Desmond Clark, and with the TE position getting deeper every year, this guy will probably get drafted by your fantasy opponents a lot sooner than he needs to.

Anthony Gonzalez – As long as Harrison and Wayne are still doing their thing, you can’t rely on a 3rd WR in Indy for any reason. That being said, if either one of them gets hurt for any amount of time, make sure Gonzalez is on your roster unless you’re stacked at WR.

Chris Henry – After losing Travis Henry, who kind of surprised everyone last year, question marks were all over Tennessee’s backfield. LenDale White seems like a has-been before he was ever any good. If he doesn’t get in shape and stop getting hurt, Henry could very well start right away. Unfortunately, with no WRs to speak of, defenses are going to key on Vince Young and whoever is in the backfield. Draft him as a keeper, but don’t be upset when 2007 isn’t his year.

Brian Leonard – Everyone seems to see a lot of skill in this guy, and I’m sure he has some, but with all those WRs and Steven Jackson learning to catch the ball last year, he’s not going to contribute to anyone’s fantasy team at all. Except that one random game where he’ll score 3TDs.

Paul Williams – He was drafted in the third round, and with no one of any significance at WR left in Tennessee, he could emerge as the #2 on that team, making him a minor sleeper.

Michael Bush – Another keeper league candidate. LaMont Jordan was so terrible last year, I almost went to Oakland to try to walk-on. They turned around and signed Dominic Rhodes in the off-season, and the starter will be whoever does better out of preseason and/or doesn’t get hurt. Michael Bush could sneak past one of those two on the depth chart and split carries all year behind the porous OL. Don’t expect much, though.

Antonio Pittman – Deuce and Reggie? Oh yea. Forget this guy until that game or three that Deuce has to sit out for some leg malady.

Brandon Jackson – Verand Morency isn’t very good. Neither are any of the other clowns the Packers have in the backfield. I wonder if they targeted Jackson in the second round or just missed out on the top tier guys, so they just took whatever was available in Round 2. They say he’s a bit small and not as fast as one would like, but if he gains some weight, he’ll be able to deal with all the hits he’s going to take in the NFL. He can also catch the ball a little bit, so this guy is going to be the one no one talks about because everyone thinks he’s a sleeper. Just because of the situation he’s in, he could end up being a top 3 rookie RB this year, but I’m not sure if he’s going to get 1,000 yards.

Oakland Raiders passed on Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart last season for safety Michael Huff. They did not pass this season, selecting JaMarcus Russell. Russell will be competing with Andrew Walter for the starting job. He is going to struggle early if he is expected to start, particularly if they lose Randy Moss. New coach Lane Kiffin will improve the offense that struggled so mightily under Art Shell last season, but Russell faces an uphill climb as a raw QB on a team with a poor offensive line.

Bust. Every player in the 2007 NFL Draft wants to avoid that unfortunate tag. A bust of a high first rounder can really set a team back, as David Carr, Ryan Leaf, and Andre Wadsworth can attest.

But that does not mean that every player who is a bust was a bad draft pick. Drafting players is like many other things in life - a risk versus reward proposition. A player with a tremendous upside often has a huge risk of failure. The trick is to evaluate the risk versus reward and determine where the player should be drafted. Each individual team has their own philosophies - some teams are much more willing to take risks than others.

Below are some of the players in the 2007 NFL Draft that have high bust factors. You will find many of the top rated prospects on the War Room Report 2007 NFL Draft Big Board. As mentioned, their upside is tremendous, so these players still earn lofty rankings, even when the chance of failure is included.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (Big Board Rank: 4) - It may surprise some to see the player we rated as the 4th best in the entire draft listed here, but Russell does have a high bust factor. He must improve his reads at the next level after running a very simple offense in college. He does not have excellent mobility, which could hamper him on a team with poor pass protection. Some question Russell’s dedication to the game as well. If Russell can put it all together, he has some of the best physical tools ever seen in a QB. If not, he could be out of the league in five years.

Alan Branch, DT, Michigan (10th overall) - Defensive tackle is one of the hardest positions to project, as it is filled with recent busts like Gerard Warren and Ryan Sims. Most defensive tackles are physically superior in college and only are really challenged at the NFL level. When he is on his game, Branch looks virtually unblockable. At 324 lbs with a 5.04 40, Branch is by far the top nose tackle prospect in the draft and is only challenged by Amobi Okoye for the best defensive tackle overall. However, concerns about Branch’s conditioning and commitment to the game also are troublesome. He also must learn to use more techinque than pure strength.

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas (19th overall) - Houston is drawing comparisons to recent Arkansas CB and draft bust Ahmad Carroll. Houston has the best chance of any corner in the draft of being a “shut down” type cover corner, but he is still extremely raw. Despite his efforts shutting down top notch receivers this season, he was repeatedly abused by a receiver with great ball skills in Sidney Rice. Houston must learn to react better, as he will not be able to physically dominate some NFL receivers. If he is beat, Houston will have to resist the urge to hold as Carroll did. Houston is a player who could be a top ten pick on some boards and a second rounder on others.

Levi Brown, OT, Penn State (25th overall) - The War Room Report ranks Brown lower than most. While left tackle is one of the most important positions in the NFL and Brown has all of the physical skills to play the position, concerns about his consistency have led us to dropping him in the rankings. Brown’s technique is poor as he will often get caught with his hands down and his body too straight. He must latch onto the defensive end at the point of attack in the NFL. He also displays inconsistent effort which is alarming as he prepares for the NFL. Brown may be best suited at right tackle or even inside at guard.

Brandon Merriweather, S, Miami (34th Overall) - With the recent crackdown on player conduct, teams are placing more emphasis on character. Meriweather was involved in the melee during the Florida International game when he was seen stomping on a player. Meriweather also fired a gun at an assailant who attacked a teammate during the season. Physically, he must work on getting stronger, especially if he continues to play with the same reckless nature. Still, his strong coverage skills and willingness to assist in run support make him a valuable prospect.

There are several other players who have high bust factors for a variety of reasons. Below are some others to watch for:

Character Issues:

Eric Wright, CB, UNLV (39th Overall)
Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida (58th Overall)
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (131st Overall)

Speed or In Season Performance Concerns:

Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno Stat (43rd Overall)
Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal (50th Overall)
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia (77th Overall)
Earl Everett, OLB, Florida (99th Overall)

Players who lack a defined position in the NFL (aka “tweeners”)

Lamarr Woodley, DE, Michigan (51st Overall)
Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers (52nd Overall)
Eric Weddle, S/CB, Utah (53rd Overall)

Rob Rang of NFLDraftscout.com wrote an article for CBS Sportsline on the players who are rising and falling during the pro day workouts. Darrelle Revis, who has reported on previously, is one of the biggest risers, along with JaMarcus Russell. We disagree with the assertion that Jamaal Anderson hurt himself that much with his workout. Slightly better numbers would have helped his stock slightly, but he is still no worse than the 3rd or 4th DEs on almost every board.

Here some under the radar players who helped themselves:

Will Herring, Auburn - A SS/OLB tweener type player, Herring posted a 4.57 40 and an outstanding short shuttle of 3.99. Only one player at the combine (Sabby Piscitelli) ran a faster shuttle. Herring is 229 pounds and may be better suited for a team that would allow him to play an in the box safety position eventually. He is a second day player.

Dante Rosario, Oregon - Another tweener, a FB/TE type player, Rosario had a solid workout, showing great agility for a 240 lb player, running his short shuttle in 4.21 and a sub 7.00 3 cone drill. Rosario is an interesting prospect for an H-back type position.

Brandon Myles, West Virginia - Myles, one of the biggest snubs of the 2007 NFL Combine, posted very good numbers at WVU’s pro day. He ran his 40 in 4.41 and had a 10 foot 11 inch broad jump. Myles projects as a round 5 or 6 WR.

LSU QB JaMarcus Russell had his pro day on March 14th, and by all accounts, was successfully able to showcase his arm for NFL Scouts. The Oakland Raiders, who are projected to take Russell with the #1 pick in the War Room Report’s 2007 NFL Mock Draft, interviewed Russell the evening before his pro day.

NFL Draft analysts are starting to lose perspective on Russell. The War Room Report is high on the 6-6 QB, ranking him 4th overall on the 2007 NFL Draft Big Board, but he does not compare to many of the recent top QBs, because of the high bust risk that accompanies a player who is still developing.

Mike Mayock of NFL Network claims that Russell has the best arm he has ever seen leading up to the draft. Scouts Inc’s Todd McShay described the pro day performance as “…the most impressive of all the pro days I’ve been to…” While both accolades may be true, it is important to keep perspective. Russell still must work on reading defenses better. At times he exhibits too much confidence in his arm, forcing the ball into spots and leading to turnovers. For a player projected as the #1 QB in the draft and who is getting compared to prospects like Vince Young or Peyton Manning, Russell did not dominate in college, despite having two first day picks at WR.

Russell’s potential is intriguing, and it does elevate him above Brady Quinn as the top QB in this draft. But at the same time, you would think that scouts would have learned from past instances, not to put too much emphasis on workouts and arm strength

• Denver Broncos added tight end Daniel Graham from New England. Graham signed a five year, $30 million deal, with $15 million dollars guaranteed. It seems like a huge amount of money for a “block first” tight end on a team that already has a promising weapon at TE, Tony Scheffler, but the Broncos do run the two TE Set often, and appear to be really gunning up for a 2007 playoff run.
• Desperate times call for desperate measures. The Minnesota Vikings, who currently have first round bust Troy Williamson at the top of the depth chart, signed Bobby Wade of the Titans. Wade had 33 catches last year for Tennessee. The Titans have now lost two WR, at what was already a weak position. They will definitely be looking for a weapon early in the draft.
• In draft news, we are hearing rumors that the Raiders were less than impressed with JaMarcus Russell’s attitude at the combine. He showed up overweight and told teams that “he would lose it in a few weeks”. Troy Smith also showed up a few pounds heavy, but seemed more remorseful about it. Russell is still the favorite to go #1, but do not discount Calvin Johnson’s chance.