The odds are stacked against John Beck and other Round 2 QBs.

One of the War Room Report writers, Justin Davis, spelled out his theory on drafting a quarterback earlier this year. After seeing Philadelphia, Miami, and Detroit target 2nd round QBs in Kevin Kolb, John Beck, and Drew Stanton, I thought it would be an interesting theory to test.

The Davis Theory:

“If you want a QB, go up to Round 1 and take one of the top guys. If not, you are wasting a pick”

What do the results show? Did the Dolphins, Eagles, and Lions make a mistake?

I studied the 1998-2005 drafts, ignoring the 2006 and 2007 draft as it is too early to draw any conclusions. Below are the results. Some of the categories could be disputed, but the results are clear.

QBs taken in Round 2 +

79 selected

Successes:
Tom Brady
Matt Hasselback
Drew Brees
Marc Bulger (4/79) (5%)

Possible/marginal successes:
Brian Griese
Aaron Brooks
Chris Simms
Matt Schaub (4/79) (5%)

So if you wait until after Rd 1, you have a 10% chance of getting an Aaron Brooks type and a 90% chance of getting someone worse.

QBs selected in Round 1

23 selected

Successes:
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Donovan Mcnabb
Peyton Manning (4/23) (17%)

Potential/Marginal successes:
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
Chad Pennington
Daunte Culpepper (10/23) (43%)

So if you take a QB in Round 1, you have a 60% chance of getting a Chad Pennington type, with a higher % of getting a Manning esque player. You even have a 50% greater chance of getting a Manning or Palmer than you do of getting an Aaron Brooks if you wait.

Furthermore, of the projected starters in the 2007 season, below are the draft positions:

Round 1: 17 (53.1%)
Round 2: 3 (9.4%)
Round 3: 4 (12.5)
Round 4-7: 3 (9.4%)
Undrafted: 5 (15.6%)

So the odds are stacked in the favor of a team drafting their starting QB in Round 1. The only QBs currently starting that were drafted in Round 2 are:

Brett Favre (1991)
Drew Brees (2001)
Tavaris Jackson (2006)

It should be noted that Favre and Brees were drafted 33rd and 32nd overall respectively.

The odds are distinctly against Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, or John Beck succeeding. All three have positive qualities that may allow them to succeed, but they would be going against recent history.

There are a lot of rumors floating around about who will be the 3rd quarterback selected in the 2007 NFL Draft, after JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. Some rumor sites are even speculating that the third QB could sneak into the end of Round One (via a trade up).

While we are not sure who will be the 3rd QB drafted (Our money is on Trent Edwards), we know who it should be:

Drew Stanton.

Stanton has ideal size, outstanding arm strength, and is one of the better athletes at the position. He has a good release and the ability to make all of the NFL throws (which separates him from many of the other QBs). Stanton uses his athleticism to expand the pocket and can throw well on the run. He was one of the most accurate QBs in the country during his junior season, only to regress slightly in his senior season. The main concern with Stanton is consistency, but it is hard to judge him since he played on an over-matched Michigan State team.

But Stanton has the base to become a very good quarterback if developed properly. His high upside makes him a deserving #3 QB. He has been rated our 3rd highest QB all along and we see nothing that indicates we should change our ranking.

Many other sites change their rankings frequently in the off-season, which we do not understand. The rankings should not be based on public opinion, but what you think of each player. Some changes will occur, but drastic shifts should not happen frequently. We applaud those who maintain consistency and conviction in their rankings like The Huddle Report and Draft Daddy.

Some of the other QBs that are rising are interesting - John Beck of BYU and Kevin Kolb of Houston are mentioned as possible 3rd QBs selected (Along with Stanton and Edwards). Beck is an older prospect who is a better athlete than some think, but he has a thin build and an awkward release point. We question his upside - can he ever been better than an average starter?

We like Kolb, but the development curve may be high. He played in a version of the spread in college and will have to adjust to the NFL. He seems an ideal fit for a West Coast offense, and while his future potential seems high, he needs to develop a more consistent delivery and is going to be limited in the scheme he can play in.

It will be interesting to see who will be the third QB selected, but for the War Room Report, that is little doubt that Drew Stanton deserves to be.