1st May 2007

2007 NFL Draft Grades - AFC Teams

The AFC Grades are in:

Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are usually one of the best drafting teams and again had a good draft, despite reaching in Round 2. Ben Grubbs was a solid pick in Round 1, but the player they really wanted, Joe Staley, was snatched directly in front of them. In Round 3, Yamon Figurs was a huge reach, based too much on the impact of Devin Hester last season. Figurs is only going to be able to contribute in the return game. The second Round 3 pick was strong with another versatile lineman in Marshall Yanda. Antwan Barnes will be used perfectly to rush the passer by the Ravens and could reach double digit sacks as a rookie if given playing time. Le’Ron McClain will likely start at FB and Prescott Burgess, despite a lack of speed, was a reasonable pick in the 6th round. Grade: B

Buffalo Bills - After seeing Patrick Willis snatched directly ahead of them, the Bills solved their running back problems with Marshawn Lynch, but surprisingly also selected Dwayne Wright in the 4th round. They made the correct move in trading up for Paul Posluszny in the 2nd. Posluszny can play either MLB or OLB and will be a Day One starter. Adding Trent Edwards was an interesting move for a team that already has J.P. Losman, but it was a reasonable pick in Round 3. The Bills did well at the end of the draft with John Wendling, Derek Schouman, and C.J. Ah You, 3 players who all should make the team. Interestingly enough for a team that needs CB help, they did not draft a single player at that position. Grade: C

Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals were lucky enough to have one of the best values in Round 1 fall to them when Leon Hall made it to pick 18. Hall is not only a fine technician who should immediately start across from Jonathan Joseph, but he is a great character player that the Bengals could use. Kenny Irons was a bit perplexing in Round 2, as it appears the Bengals have tired of former 1st round pick Chris Perry. Marvin White could be a player and the Bengals need a future replacement for Dexter Jackson. The Bengals must be content with the linebacker position as they did not add draft any OLBs. Despite a terrific selection in Round 1, the Bengals only had an average draft. Grade: C

Cleveland Browns - The Browns are coming away as the big winner on most boards because of the addition of a franchise LT in Joe Thomas and a potential star in QB Brady Quinn. The cost for moving up to acquire Quinn was high, as the Browns sacrificed their 2008 first round pick in the trade up. The Browns need to see instant improvement in 2007 to make the trade worth it. If they land a top 3 pick again next year, they will have made a huge mistake. They made a good selection with CB Eric Wright at 53 overall, who was a first round talent that fell on character concerns. The rest of the draft was relatively tame, but Thomas and Quinn could potentially make the Browns big winners. Grade: A-

Denver Broncos - The Broncos may have made an unnecessary move up, but they coveted DE Jarvis Moss, who may only see the field as a pass rushing specialist as a rookie. DE Tim Crowder was an excellent pick at 56th overall, as was OT Ryan Harris, a prototypical zone blocking tackle, at 70. The Broncos moved up again to acquire DT Marcus Thomas, who could potentially be the best DT in the draft if he can alleviate any concerns about his off the field issues. On a talent basis, the Broncos had one of the strongest drafts, however off the field concerns and the price they had to pay for trading up twice downgrades their grade slightly. Grade: B-

Houston Texans - The Texans passed on the top CBs on the board in order to select one a strong value in Amobi Okoye. Okoye and Mario Williams could provide a long term difference on the defensive line. Jacoby Jones was selected to give Matt Schaub another target, but the raw player may not be ready to start at the beginning of the 07 season. There may have been better value at that pick. Fred Bennett was a solid pick at 123 and should see the field as a rookie. A pair of interesting offensive line prospects were added on Day 2, Virginia Tech OT Brandon Frye and OG Kasey Studdard of Texa. Studdard may be limited to just a back up role, but Frye could become a starter at some point. The high price the Texans paid for Matt Schaub has to be reflected in their grade. Grade: C-

Indianapolis Colts - As predicted, the Colts were in a tough spot in Round 1 with the potential Cover 2 linebackers off the board. Alan Branch would have made sense for them, but instead they go offense with WR Anthony Gonzalez who will play an important role as a slot receiver for Indianapolis. He really fits their system, though he may not have been the best value at 32. The Colts paid a high price - their 2008 1st round pick - in order to acquire OT Tony Ugoh, who does not fill a major need and will need development before being an NFL starter. Daymeion Hughes and Quinn Pitcock were good values in Round 3, and both could play in 2007. Hughes is an ideal fit for the Cover 2 system, and may compete with Kelvin Hayden and Tim Jennings for a starting job. The rest of the draft was not outstanding, though Michael Coe was a great pick in the 5th round. Grade: C-

Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars made a very shrewd move in moving down with Denver and still acquiring the player they desired in S Reggie Nelson, who fits their system perfectly next to S Donovan Darius and will be an instant starter. They reached for LB Justin Durant in the 2nd round, but he has the ability to push Daryl Smith in 2007 and could eventually replace Mike Peterson at MLB. As predicted, they added Adam Podlesh who was a reasonable pick in the 4th round, and should take the punting job. They did very well on Day 2 adding a number of potential starters including S Josh Gattis, who could be the eventual replacement for Darius. Grade: B

Kansas City Chiefs - After neglecting the WR position in the draft for several seasons, the Chiefs passed on a potential difference maker along the offensive line in Joe Staley to select Dwayne Bowe. Bowe was not a poor pick but there was depth at the position and they may have been able to wait to select a WR. They did well to improve their interior defensive line with Turk McBride, more of a pass rushing DT, and the run stuffer Tank Tyler. If both players put forth the proper effort and remain consistent, they could start in the 2007 season. Kansas City did well on Day 2, adding a backup for Larry Johnson in Kolby Smith, a new place kicker in Justin Medlock, and an interesting TE prospect in Michael Allen. OT Herbert Taylor may be too undersized for the Chiefs scheme and could be moved to guard. Grade: B

Miami Dolphins: To the shock of many, the Dolphins passed on potential franchise QB Brady Quinn to select WR Ted Ginn Jr. While Ginn should have an immediate impact in the return game, at pick #9, the player needs to be outstanding and among the faces of your franchise. The Dolphins took John Beck in Round 2, but we are not high on Beck’s potential as an NFL starter. Samson Satele is a good player, but was not much of a value in Round 2 and does not fulfill a major need. Lorenzo Booker is a good change of pace back and a good value in the 3rd round, but again, does not fulfill a need. Paul Soliali was a good selection in the fourth for the nose tackle position. The rest of the Dolphins draft was reaches, save 7th rounder Kelvin Smith. Grade: D-

New England Patriots - The Patriots got an ideal fit in S Brandon Meriweather in the 1st round and good value in trading down with San Francisco for the 2nd of their Round 1 picks. The Pats got a solid player in Kareem Brown in the 4th round and also used a 4th rounder to acquire WR Randy Moss, who could really help the team. The round 6 and 7 picks are not inspiring. It is interesting that the Patriots did not add any significant competition at the ILB or CB spot, save late round picks. Grade: B-

New York Jets - The Jets decided that this draft would be about quality over quantity and added two impressive defensive pieces in CB Darrelle Revis and ILB David Harris. Both players will start in the 2007 season. Revis is instantly the best CB on the team and the thought of David Harris next to Jonathan Vilma should worry AFC running backs. The Jets did very well in Round 6 to acquire developmental tackle prospect Jacob Bender and a good value in the 7th with WR Chansi Stuckey. The Jets got two very good players, and that can not be ignored, but they paid a high price in trades. Grade: B

Oakland Raiders - Oakland took their potential franchise QB in JaMarcus Russell and if given time to develop, he could be the leader of their franchise. Zach Miller is a good player, but 38 may have been too high for him. The Round 3 picks of Quinton Moses, Mario Henderson, and Johnnie Lee Higgins give the Raiders 3 potential starters, and they made a terrific value pick with Michael Bush at pick 100. The rest of the draft was a typical Al Davis draft of taking measurables guys, including a major reach for CB John Bowie, a track star, at pick 110. Grade: C+

Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers showed that they want players that can transition from the 3-4 to the 4-3 that Mike Tomlin will eventually employ. Lawrence Timmons may have been a slight reach at 15, but he is a good player and should start immediately. Lamar Woodley is one of our favorite players in the draft, but he probably would have been available after pick 46 and may have trouble transitioning to the 3-4 OLB spot. Matt Spaeth was our 4th ranked TE, but the way some of the other TEs fell, he could have been available much later. The Steelers did well to get a good punter in Daniel Sepulveda in Round 4 and another versatile defender, Ryan McBean, who projects as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 DT. Dallas Baker was a good addition in the 7th round. Grade: C+

San Diego Chargers - The Chargers reached for WR Craig Davis in Round 1. There were better receivers, including Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Gonzalez, and Steve Smith on the board. Eric Weddle is a solid player, but the price the Chargers paid to move up was high, and pick 37 was too high for Weddle. The rest of the Chargers draft was typically strong. They selected great depth and possibly future starters at ILB in Anthony Waters and Brandon Siler, added a TE project in Scott Chandler, and another WR project in Legedu Naanee. Still, the early round reaches really downgrades their draft grade. Grade: D

Tennessee Titans - Michael Griffin was an odd pick for the Titans in Round 1. They are deep at safety and Griffin was a reach at that pick. They had two huge needs at WR and CB, yet passed on Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meacham, Aaron Ross, and Chris Houston. The Titans added a 3 WRs in the draft, but none project as instant starters and were all reaches. Chris Henry was a huge reach in the 2nd round - he is a workout warrior who averaged 3.5 yards a carry at Arizona. Antonio Johnson was a good pick in the 5th round and the Titans did well late in the draft adding situational pass rusher Jacob Ford and a solid offensive tackle prospect in Mike Otto. Still, the Titans will be entering the season with glaring needs at CB and WR. Grade: D

posted in Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Grades, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, 2007 NFL Draft, Denver Broncos, Rankings, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, NFL | 3 Comments

26th April 2007

Final Rankings

The War Room Report posted our final big board today. There are not that many changes. If you are basing your rankings on what you think, instead of changing them with the wind, the rankings should not change drastically, especially at the top of the board.

There are going to be changes as small school players like Jacoby Jones work up the board. However we find it amusing that some well known sites are changing their rankings at the top of their board. There is not to say there are not differences of opinion among the War Room Report staff.

We featured many of the points of contention in our Buy or Sell section. The most contentious debates centered around:

Who should be the top CB? Leon Hall has always been rated #1 at CB, just ahead of Darrelle Revis, who is a favorite of War Room scout Matt Maccoy. I actually think both prospects are similar - low bust factors (for their position) but possibly limited upside. Hall’s success at one of the biggest programs in the country and fine technical skills seperate him from Revis slightly in my mind.

WR was another position with much debate. Dwayne Jarrett has always been the #2 prospect on our board, which may surprise some. We feel his lack of timed speed is not as big of a concern as it is being made out to be. Robert Meacham is our 3rd rated prospect, slightly over Ted Ginn, who some of our scouts like more than others. We also rate Sidney Rice over Dwanye Bowe and Anthony Gonzalez. His ball skills are impressive and if you analyze his collegiate production, it is superior to almost every WR in this draft when accounting for quality of competition and QB production.

posted in Dwayne Jarrett, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 0 Comments

25th April 2007

2007 NFL Draft Quarterbacks

There are a lot of rumors floating around about who will be the 3rd quarterback selected in the 2007 NFL Draft, after JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. Some rumor sites are even speculating that the third QB could sneak into the end of Round One (via a trade up).

While we are not sure who will be the 3rd QB drafted (Our money is on Trent Edwards), we know who it should be:

Drew Stanton.

Stanton has ideal size, outstanding arm strength, and is one of the better athletes at the position. He has a good release and the ability to make all of the NFL throws (which separates him from many of the other QBs). Stanton uses his athleticism to expand the pocket and can throw well on the run. He was one of the most accurate QBs in the country during his junior season, only to regress slightly in his senior season. The main concern with Stanton is consistency, but it is hard to judge him since he played on an over-matched Michigan State team.

But Stanton has the base to become a very good quarterback if developed properly. His high upside makes him a deserving #3 QB. He has been rated our 3rd highest QB all along and we see nothing that indicates we should change our ranking.

Many other sites change their rankings frequently in the off-season, which we do not understand. The rankings should not be based on public opinion, but what you think of each player. Some changes will occur, but drastic shifts should not happen frequently. We applaud those who maintain consistency and conviction in their rankings like The Huddle Report and Draft Daddy.

Some of the other QBs that are rising are interesting - John Beck of BYU and Kevin Kolb of Houston are mentioned as possible 3rd QBs selected (Along with Stanton and Edwards). Beck is an older prospect who is a better athlete than some think, but he has a thin build and an awkward release point. We question his upside - can he ever been better than an average starter?

We like Kolb, but the development curve may be high. He played in a version of the spread in college and will have to adjust to the NFL. He seems an ideal fit for a West Coast offense, and while his future potential seems high, he needs to develop a more consistent delivery and is going to be limited in the scheme he can play in.

It will be interesting to see who will be the third QB selected, but for the War Room Report, that is little doubt that Drew Stanton deserves to be.

posted in John Beck, Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 2 Comments

6th April 2007

Potential Busts in the 2007 NFL Draft

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Bust. Every player in the 2007 NFL Draft wants to avoid that unfortunate tag. A bust of a high first rounder can really set a team back, as David Carr, Ryan Leaf, and Andre Wadsworth can attest.

But that does not mean that every player who is a bust was a bad draft pick. Drafting players is like many other things in life - a risk versus reward proposition. A player with a tremendous upside often has a huge risk of failure. The trick is to evaluate the risk versus reward and determine where the player should be drafted. Each individual team has their own philosophies - some teams are much more willing to take risks than others.

Below are some of the players in the 2007 NFL Draft that have high bust factors. You will find many of the top rated prospects on the War Room Report 2007 NFL Draft Big Board. As mentioned, their upside is tremendous, so these players still earn lofty rankings, even when the chance of failure is included.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (Big Board Rank: 4) - It may surprise some to see the player we rated as the 4th best in the entire draft listed here, but Russell does have a high bust factor. He must improve his reads at the next level after running a very simple offense in college. He does not have excellent mobility, which could hamper him on a team with poor pass protection. Some question Russell’s dedication to the game as well. If Russell can put it all together, he has some of the best physical tools ever seen in a QB. If not, he could be out of the league in five years.

Alan Branch, DT, Michigan (10th overall) - Defensive tackle is one of the hardest positions to project, as it is filled with recent busts like Gerard Warren and Ryan Sims. Most defensive tackles are physically superior in college and only are really challenged at the NFL level. When he is on his game, Branch looks virtually unblockable. At 324 lbs with a 5.04 40, Branch is by far the top nose tackle prospect in the draft and is only challenged by Amobi Okoye for the best defensive tackle overall. However, concerns about Branch’s conditioning and commitment to the game also are troublesome. He also must learn to use more techinque than pure strength.

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas (19th overall) - Houston is drawing comparisons to recent Arkansas CB and draft bust Ahmad Carroll. Houston has the best chance of any corner in the draft of being a “shut down” type cover corner, but he is still extremely raw. Despite his efforts shutting down top notch receivers this season, he was repeatedly abused by a receiver with great ball skills in Sidney Rice. Houston must learn to react better, as he will not be able to physically dominate some NFL receivers. If he is beat, Houston will have to resist the urge to hold as Carroll did. Houston is a player who could be a top ten pick on some boards and a second rounder on others.

Levi Brown, OT, Penn State (25th overall) - The War Room Report ranks Brown lower than most. While left tackle is one of the most important positions in the NFL and Brown has all of the physical skills to play the position, concerns about his consistency have led us to dropping him in the rankings. Brown’s technique is poor as he will often get caught with his hands down and his body too straight. He must latch onto the defensive end at the point of attack in the NFL. He also displays inconsistent effort which is alarming as he prepares for the NFL. Brown may be best suited at right tackle or even inside at guard.

Brandon Merriweather, S, Miami (34th Overall) - With the recent crackdown on player conduct, teams are placing more emphasis on character. Meriweather was involved in the melee during the Florida International game when he was seen stomping on a player. Meriweather also fired a gun at an assailant who attacked a teammate during the season. Physically, he must work on getting stronger, especially if he continues to play with the same reckless nature. Still, his strong coverage skills and willingness to assist in run support make him a valuable prospect.

There are several other players who have high bust factors for a variety of reasons. Below are some others to watch for:

Character Issues:

Eric Wright, CB, UNLV (39th Overall)
Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida (58th Overall)
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
(131st Overall)

Speed or In Season Performance Concerns:

Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno Stat (43rd Overall)
Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal (50th Overall)
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia (77th Overall)
Earl Everett, OLB, Florida (99th Overall)

Players who lack a defined position in the NFL (aka “tweeners”)

Lamarr Woodley, DE, Michigan (51st Overall)
Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers (52nd Overall)
Eric Weddle, S/CB, Utah (53rd Overall)

posted in JaMarcus Russell, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 4 Comments

29th March 2007

Dwayne Jarrett Pro Day Results

The Dwayne Jarrett watch is over, as he worked out for scouts on March 28th. Jarrett ran two 40 yard dashes - in 4.67 and 4.62, reports Gil Brandt of NFL.com. Jarrett also ran a short shuttle in 4.20 and a three cone drill in 7.28. The short shuttle result is average - Steve Smith ran a 4.19, while the fastest among WRs was Anthony Gonzalez and Mike Mason, who both ran a 4.08. The three cone drill result seems inaccurate - that time would have been the slowest at the combine, regardless of position.

Jarrett had a 36.5 inch vertical jump and a 10 foot 1 inch broad jump. The vertical jump and broad jump results were in the average range for WRs.

The question remains - where does this leave Jarrett? His measurables do not seem to be that of a first round pick, but his production is hard to ignore. Jarrett is most likely going to be drafted fifth at WR now - after Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr., Robert Meacham, and Dwayne Bowe. He is still probably above teammate Steve Smith, sophomore Sidney Rice, and Anthony Gonzalez.

The USC connection could still land Jarrett in Tennessee at 19, but that may be a little high. Other landing spots for Jarrett include Kansas City (23) , Philadelphia (26), or New Orleans (27). Any of the three teams selecting at the end of Round One could consider Jarrett - San Diego, Chicago, and Indianapolis.

Jarrett’s most likely destination at this moment would seem to be the early part of Round 2 - The Chicago Bears would be my prediction at pick 37, unless another team trades up earlier in the round to take him.

posted in Dwayne Jarrett, Pro Day Results, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 1 Comment

17th March 2007

Michigan Pro Day

The University of Michigan had their pro day on March 16th. The player with the most to gain was DE/OLB Lamar Woodley. Nfl.com’s Gil Brandt reported that Woodley ran a 40 in 4.74 and 4.84 seconds. Woodley is the type of player who was extremely productive in college, but questions on his role in the NFL are impacting his status. The War Room Report sees Woodley much as 2006 prospect Elvis Dumervil, who was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the 4th round and notched 8.5 sacks in his rookie season. Woodley’s collegiate production can not be ignored and he is actually bigger than Dumervil. Some team is going to get a steal with the Michigan product.

The other big news from the Pro Day was Alan Branch, who is one of the biggest boom or bust prospects in the 2007 NFL Draft. Branch reportedly tired easily in the positional drills. Branch’s upside can not be ignored, but if a player is not willing to stay in shape as he is auditioning for the NFL, it is unlikely he will have the necessary commitment to improve his game at the NFL level.

posted in Pro Day Results, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 0 Comments

16th March 2007

Darrelle Revis Pro Day

Darrelle Revis

The early reports that Darrelle Revis, the #2 ranked CB in the War Room Report’s 2007 NFL Draft rankings, dispelled any questions about his speed with a 4.38 40 yard dash at Pitt’s pro day. Revis is currently projected to go to the Dallas Cowboys in the 2007 NFL Mock Draft. Revis has all the tools necessary to be a successful NFL corner. He is willing to play physical football and can run with most WRs.

posted in Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 0 Comments

13th March 2007

Defense Rankings Posted - Adam Carriker Top Mover

Adam Carriker

The War Room Report’s scouts have completed their analysis of the top defensive players in the draft and after much debate, have move Nebraska DE Adam Carriker to #1 at Defensive End and #2 overall among defensive players. The 2007 NFL Draft Positional Rankings are complete for all positions, including offensive line.

Carriker is the most complete defensive end in the class. Gaines Adams and Jarvis Moss are both speed rushers who will be pushed around at the point of attack in the running game. Jamaal Anderson still struggles with inconsistency. Carriker can play any position, save nose tackle, in either the 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. While Carriker is the #1 DE, he is not the same elite talent of recent prospects Mario Williams or Julius Peppers, but he deserves to be one of the first defensive players off the board.

That latest War Room Report 2007 NFL Mock Draft has Adam Carriker going 11th to the San Francisco 49ers.

Updated War Room Report scouting reports will be continuing before the draft.

posted in San Francisco 49ers, Adam Carriker, Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 0 Comments

7th March 2007

WRR Tight End Rankings

The War Room Report has published our rankings of Tight Ends for the 2007 NFL Draft. Miami TE Greg Olsen heads the list, followed by Arizona State’s Zach Miller and Delaware Tight End Ben Patrick. Scouting reports are available on the top five tight ends, with more to come. Don’t miss the War Room Report’s interview with Ben Patrick.

Also be sure to check out:

Wide Receiver Rankings
Quarterback Rankings

Running Back Rankings
Fullback Rankings

posted in Rankings, 2007 NFL Draft | 0 Comments