Do not be the guy that drafts Robbie Gould too early in 2007

We recently released a new feature on the War Room Report - our group big board rankings for the 2007 Fantasy Season. We will be updating the rankings again as the season approaches to help with your fantasy drafts.

We have some talented fantasy writers here at the War Room Report and will be writing and blogging about various topics.

One of the things that is often separates top, consistent fantasy owners from the pack is an understanding of value in the draft. Even if you knew that Marques Colston was going to have the season he did, drafting him in Round 4 last year would have been a mistake - he would have been available in Round 14. This phenomenon is most evident in the drafting of fantasy kickers. Some owners routinely waste high picks on kickers and will point to the outstanding season he had the year before as evidence that it is a valuable pick. However, two factors make this an incorrect theory.

• Kickers, since they rely on the team they play on for scoring chances, are wildly inconsistent in final scoring numbers
• The variance between the #1 kicker and the top replacement kicker (the best kicker left on the free agent wire, #13 in most leagues) is minimal.

Let’s examine the first statement. The top 3 fantasy kickers in 2005 were Jay Feely (148 pts), Neil Rackers (140), and Shayne Graham (131). How did the three fair in 2006? Feely dropped by 27.7% down to 107 points, but it was through no fault of his own. Feely actually completed a higher percentage of FGs in 2006 than he did in 2005 (85.2% vs 83.3%). Rackers fell over by 20.7% (to 116), though it was partially to blame as he made a much lower percentage of field goals. The drop of Graham was more subtle - 12.2% versus 2005, but he too, fell from being a top 3 fantasy kicker to 9th.

The “best” kickers in the league do not necessarily equate to fantasy success. Let’s look at Adam Vinatieri’s numbers:

2006: 113 points
2005: 100 points
2004: 141 points

Anyone that drafted Vinatieri in 2005 because he was the “best kicker” and had scored 141 points the year before wasted a high draft pick.

Let’s address the second point. The difference between last year’s #1 kicker (Robbie Gould of the Bears, who went undrafted in many leagues) and the #13 kicker (Josh Brown) was 32 points…. or less than 2 points a game. So even if you could successfully predict kicking stats prior to the season, is that 2 point advantage really worth drafting a kicker in the first 10-12 rounds of your draft? You could have missed out on the chance to grab a guy like Travis Henry in 2006 or Willie Parker in 2005 to take a kicker. Both Rackers and Vinatieri were taken, on average, in the first 8 rounds of 2006 drafts. This was before 2006 fantasy studs like Marion Barber and the aforementioned Henry.

So when it comes to your 2007 fantasy drafts… be smart and wait until the last round or two to draft a kicker. Your trophy case will thank you.

The Free Agency period is a lot of fun for not only NFL teams, but is an interesting period of time for fantasy football fanatics as well. This year there were many important moves on the offensive side of the ball that will have a large fantasy impact on teams in the upcoming fantasy football season. Here are the moves that the War Room Report think could impact your fantasy rosters next season.

Instant Impacts

This group of free agents will immediately impact their teams and be instant impact players in the fantasy market.

WR- Randy Moss- New England Patriots - Brady should make Moss an upper tier player in the fantasy world again.

RB-Thomas Jones- New York Jets- The Jets have been searching for a RB for a couple years now with Martin aging, they finally found their man.

RB-Willis McGahee-Baltimore Ravens- Willis finds new life in a much better situation offensively. Look for him to be a top fantasy running back once again.

RB-Jamal Lewis-Cleveland Browns- Cleveland could have landed their running back of the future here, though he is not the answer long term, fantasy wise, he will definitely make some noise this year in Cleveland.

RB-Ahman Green-Houston Texans- Green has had injury problems in the recent past, but is looking to regain his fantasy value in Houston, where he will be sure to be fed the ball often. If healthy, he will put up some pretty decent numbers.

QB-Matt Schaub-Houston Texans- Its time for Schaub to live up to the hype. The question is, how many times will be he on his back, and will he get more chances to make plays behind a makeshift Texan line.

RB-Travis Henry-Denver Broncos- You could put just about anyone with decent size and speed in this system and expect them to run for 1000 yards. Now, with Henry’s talent, look for great things in Denver.

WR-Darrell Jackson-San Francisco 49ers- With Bryant gone in SF, the Niners needed a go to guy. The question is whether or not Jackson still has the legs to put up solid fantasy numbers. If he stays healthy, he will be a consistent contributor in San Francisco immediately.

RB-Dominic Rhodes-Oakland Raiders- Rhodes wants to prove the grass is greener on the other side and will get his opportunity. One thing to consider is just how much will he carry the ball with his team behind this year.

WR-Joe Horn-Atlanta Falcons- Michael Vick has not had a wide receiver of this talent level so far in Atlanta. Horn could make some noise in Atlanta, lets just hope Vick throws elsewhere other than TE.

Serious Considerations

These guys should also find their ways and have solid fantasy seasons, some of these players could be impact players before the season is over.

WR-Donte Stallworth-New England Patriots- Another solid move by Belicheck. With the type of deal he signed, he needs to prove he can stay healthy.

WR-Brandon Stokley-Denver Broncos- Smith is getting old, Stokley is a nice option, but he has to compete with Marshall for the ball.

TE-Daniel Graham-Denver Broncos- Another weapon in Cutler’s arsenal, but will there be enough passes to go around?

TE-Randy McMichael-St Louis Rams- Fits in nicely in Linehan’s offense. The Rams could have one of the best offenses in the league next year.

RB-Reuben Droughns-New York Giants- Will get some carries behind Jacobs - If Jacobs can not handle the load, Droughns could be an intriguing sleeper.

RB-Tatum Bell-Detroit Lions- Will be a nice 1-2 punch along side Jones if Jones is healthy. The Lions backfield needs to be observed carefully.

QB-David Carr-Carolina Panthers- Won’t start immediately, but may see time if Delhomme struggles again this year and could surprise.

WR-Drew Bennett-St Louis Rams- Look for Bennett to excel in the slot for the Scott Linehan with Torry Holt on the outside.

Others to consider

This group of free agents also need some consideration in deeper leagues.

WR-Kelly Washington-New England Patriots

QB-Brad Johnson-Dallas Cowboys

WR-Kevin Curtis-Philadelphia Eagles

QB-Jeff Garcia & Jake Plummer- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Off Season Key Moves

This group of defensive players are players to take serious considerations when drafting a teams defensive unit, or as an individual defensive player.

LB-Adalius Thomas-New England Patriots

DT-Darwin Walker-Buffalo Bills

LB-Donnie Edwards-Kansas City Chiefs

LB-Takeo Spikes-Philadelphia Eagles

LB-London Fletcher-Washington Redskins

CB-Nate Clements-San Francisco 49ers

CB-Fred Smoot-Washington Redskins

SS- Michael Lewis-San Fransisco 49ers

DE-Patrick Kerney-Seattle Seahawks

Is there a Marques Colston in the 2007 NFL Draft Class?

Marques Colston burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 1,038 yard and 8 touchdown season, despite missing a pair of games. He was a crucial pick ups in fantasy leagues everywhere and helped propel the Saints to the NFC title game, despite being a 7th round pick. So who has the highest chance of being the 2007 Marques Colston? The odds are stacked against any late round receiver making an impact in his rookie season, but we quizzed the experts to find out the most likely candidates.

Robert Bryant, NFL Draft Dog

Joel Filani, Texas Tech - Tennessee Titans

The 6′ 2″ 211 pound receiver was selected in the 6th round (188 overall) by the Tennessee Titans. Filani played in a pass happy system since he was a red shirt freshman in 2003. He has gotten better each year and was All Big 12 as a junior. As a senior in 2006 he put up incredible numbers, catching 91 balls for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. Filani has speed, running a 4.49 at the combine, but was penalized in his draft evaluation due to the offense he played in. Some scouts thought he was a product of the system. Filani will be given every chance to produce for the receiver thin Tennessee Titans.

Rob Tribbett, War Room Report

Chansi Stuckey, Clemson - New York Jets

Chansi Stuckey was originally considered a definite first day pick, but a lingering foot injury limited him in post season action. Stuckey, who had ran a sub 4.40 40 yard dash on campus prior to his senior season, only could muster a 4.60 at the combine. Stuckey was first team All ACC as a junior, but the injury knocked him out for four games during the 06 season. He goes to the Jets, where he immediately could step in as the third receiver, if he has a strong training camp. Stuckey is a smart player who should fit well in the Jets system, which relies on short passes and the receivers making plays.

Matt Maccoy, War Room Report

Courtney Taylor, Auburn - Seattle Seahawks

Courtney Taylor played at Auburn, so he played against top-notch competition on a daily basis. Like Colston, scouts didn’t feel that Taylor had top-notch speed so he slid down draft boards and was finally selected in the 6th Round by the Seattle Seahawks. Again, like the situation that Marques Colston fell into, Taylor has the opportunity to go and play for an offensive minded coach who does not mind throwing the football. The Seattle Seahawks made a draft day trade that sent incumbent WR Darrell Jackson to the San Fransisco 49ers, so that opens up the depth chart for someone to step up and make plays. Deion Branch is entrenched as the #1 WR, but whose to say that the trio of Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, and DJ Hackett are going to set the world on fire, and they have had injury concerns in the past as well. Marques Colston needed a trade of Donte Stallworth to the Philadelphia Eagles to allow him to move up the depth chart a year ago in New Orleans, can lighting strike twice? Maybe not. Marques Colston might just be a once in a decade type late-round rookie performance, but if such an occurrence is going to happen in the 2007 season, it is most likely to come from WR Courtney Taylor.

The first round of mini-camps are over and there is a lot of news relevant to fantasy football and the 07 draft.

• Zach Miller impressed the Raiders staff in the first mini camp under Lane Kiffin and has a real good chance to start. Miller will be a sneaky pick in fantasy leagues if you can grab him at the end of the draft. He should be a threat in the red zone for the Raiders.
• The Panthers appear ready to go forward with Nate Salley as a starter at safety. We thought the Panthers would address the position on Day One of the draft, but they did not. Salley will have to step up his game if the Panthers want to be a playoff team.
• We also thought the Bengals would add a strong side linebacker in the draft. However Cincinnati is going forward with Rashad Jenty as the strong side starter. New addition Ed Hartwell and new starter Ahmad Brooks will give the Bengals an entirely new LB corps that will be responsible for improving a defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season.
• 2nd round draft pick Brandon Jackson got the bulk of the carries at RB for the Packers at their recent rookie camp. Jackson will be competing with Vernand Morency for the starting job. The winner could be a fantasy sleeper available in Round 3 or 4 because of an improving Packers offensive line that uses the zone blocking scheme made popular in Denver.
• The Titans will be trying first round pick Michael Griffin at cornerback. The move is surprising - the Titans could have selected Griffin’s All American teammate, Aaron Ross, a natural corner at pick #19.
• We were not big fans of Tyler Palko’s chances for NFL success, but the former Pitt Panther is rightfully ecstatic about going to New Orleans. Sean Payton is one of the top offensive minds in the league and helped turn Tony Romo from an undrafted free agent to an NFL Starter.
• One of the most surprising things to come out of the mini-camps was the news that the Lions are completely altering Drew Stanton’s mechanics. Mike Martz and the Lions staff were impressed with Stanton’s athleticism but felt he needed to change his throwing motion. Stanton will likely not see the field in 2007, but could be the Lions starter in 2008.

Editor’s note: War Room Report Fantasy Writer Justin Moore debuts with his first article. The War Room Report features several top writers who have participated in and won very competitive leagues.

With the NFL draft all wrapped up, it’s time to jump on the train and start prognosticating about who is going to drive our fantasy teams to the promised land in 2007. We’ll start this year with an incredibly early list of who will contribute and who won’t to your team this year.

JaMarcus Russell – Oakland didn’t trade for Josh McCown for nothing. Even though he’s not very good, he’s going to start under center in September. By the time McCown loses his 6th or 7th game, look for Russell to start taking snaps to build rapport and timing with Mike Williams, Ronald Curry and maybe even Doug Gabriel.

Calvin Johnson – Jon Kitna gets the rock this year, while Drew Stanton learns. Don’t forget Roy Williams is no slouch and he and Kitna did pretty well together last year. With Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, and TJ Duckett splitting carries, Detroit has the potential to have a rather significant offense this year, which Johnson will contribute to significantly, but with Mike Furrey still playing a role, don’t expect 1,000 yards from the rookie…this year.

Adrian Peterson – Fantasy ‘experts’ were all about Chester Taylor last year. Then some of them figured out he just couldn’t handle the load of a full season. With second year QB Tavaris Jackson likely winning the job out of camp, there will be a bit of a learning curve while everyone gels. Expect a RBBC to happen in Minnesota, and considering they’re not a particularly good team, Peterson isn’t much more than a flex player or 3rd RB.

Ted Ginn Jr. – Everyone’s talking about ‘the foot’. It’s already been said he’s not going to be ready for mini-camp. How long will this injury linger? With question marks all over Miami’s offense to include Daunte Culpepper, the possibility of signing Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, the drafting of John Beck, the possibility of losing Marty Booker, and Chris Chambers underachievement, this offense as a whole is probably the biggest question mark right now. If everything were to gel (which it won’t), Ginn would at best be the #2 WR, but more likely the #3 on this squad in his rookie year. If you draft him in your league, make sure it’s a late round and keep an eye out for any other WR who’s going to catch more than 600 yards and 4 TDs.

Marshawn Lynch – Lynch fell into a pretty good situation in Buffalo. As much as everyone loves to hate J.P. Losman, he finally started to figure it out in the second half of last year. He bonded with Lee Evans and threw more TDs (19) than INTs (14) to garner a passer rating around 85. Willis McGahee is out of town and Anthony Thomas is everyone’s fall-back when he needs to be. Lynch will probably be a 1st and 2nd down back with Thomas getting the conversion yards until the rook figures out the speed of the NFL and makes sure he can catch a few passes out of the backfield. If Buffalo continues to come together offensively, Lynch has ROY potential.

Brady Quinn – Everyone knows this kid got robbed on draft day. Miami stole his lunch money by not taking him at 9, and then Cleveland grinned and drafted him at 22, cutting his salary by 50% or more. Even with all the emotional fallout from that, Quinn could be the starting QB for the Browns on opening day. Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are scrubs, and neither one of them is significant enough to learn from, so while the Browns start their rebuilding phase this year, Quinn should start all 16 games. Aside from Kellen Winslow, whose knee is still acting up, Braylon Edwards is the only reliable receiver. Jamal Lewis won’t do much better than he did in Baltimore last year, so expect Quinn to take his lumps with not enough help around him. I wouldn’t draft this guy in ANY format unless he was the last QB available and I needed to cover a bye.

Dwayne Bowe – There are still question marks as to who will be taking the snaps in KC this year. There are also rumors that LJ might get traded. That being said, Eddie Kennison can still put up decent numbers, so he’ll be fighting Samie Parker for the #2 slot here. If Trent Green isn’t still with the team this season, as expected, Bowe isn’t going to be of much use to anyone in 2007.

Robert Meachem – Joe Horn is out of town, so Marques Colston is now “officially” the guy in NO. The rest of the receiving corps fluctuates from week to week as far as production goes, and I see Meachem doing the same thing this year. Depending on how he comes out of preseason on the depth chart, he’s not going to be reliable enough to predict his 1 catch games vs his two 8 catch games he’ll have.

Craig Davis – Another tall, 200+ pound WR on a team that needs an identity at the position. The offense churns behind LT, and Philip Rivers sort of proved he is the man. I say sort of because they had one of the easiest schedules in the league last year. Since Parker and Jackson didn’t show much, Davis could have an opportunity to supplant Antonio Gates as the team’s top pass catcher. Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen this year. He’ll be a good late round pick to plug into a flex spot if you didn’t get that extra RB, but don’t count on him every week.

Greg Olsen – As long as Rex Grossman is in town, you never know what you’re going to get. Olsen is going to be one of those sexy pass catching TEs. That just means that with one less man on the line, Grossman is going to get hurried more, which will mean either Cedric Benson and/or Olsen is going to see an up tick on check-down passes. He’ll split time with Desmond Clark, and with the TE position getting deeper every year, this guy will probably get drafted by your fantasy opponents a lot sooner than he needs to.

Anthony Gonzalez – As long as Harrison and Wayne are still doing their thing, you can’t rely on a 3rd WR in Indy for any reason. That being said, if either one of them gets hurt for any amount of time, make sure Gonzalez is on your roster unless you’re stacked at WR.

Chris Henry – After losing Travis Henry, who kind of surprised everyone last year, question marks were all over Tennessee’s backfield. LenDale White seems like a has-been before he was ever any good. If he doesn’t get in shape and stop getting hurt, Henry could very well start right away. Unfortunately, with no WRs to speak of, defenses are going to key on Vince Young and whoever is in the backfield. Draft him as a keeper, but don’t be upset when 2007 isn’t his year.

Brian Leonard – Everyone seems to see a lot of skill in this guy, and I’m sure he has some, but with all those WRs and Steven Jackson learning to catch the ball last year, he’s not going to contribute to anyone’s fantasy team at all. Except that one random game where he’ll score 3TDs.

Paul Williams – He was drafted in the third round, and with no one of any significance at WR left in Tennessee, he could emerge as the #2 on that team, making him a minor sleeper.

Michael Bush – Another keeper league candidate. LaMont Jordan was so terrible last year, I almost went to Oakland to try to walk-on. They turned around and signed Dominic Rhodes in the off-season, and the starter will be whoever does better out of preseason and/or doesn’t get hurt. Michael Bush could sneak past one of those two on the depth chart and split carries all year behind the porous OL. Don’t expect much, though.

Antonio Pittman – Deuce and Reggie? Oh yea. Forget this guy until that game or three that Deuce has to sit out for some leg malady.

Brandon Jackson – Verand Morency isn’t very good. Neither are any of the other clowns the Packers have in the backfield. I wonder if they targeted Jackson in the second round or just missed out on the top tier guys, so they just took whatever was available in Round 2. They say he’s a bit small and not as fast as one would like, but if he gains some weight, he’ll be able to deal with all the hits he’s going to take in the NFL. He can also catch the ball a little bit, so this guy is going to be the one no one talks about because everyone thinks he’s a sleeper. Just because of the situation he’s in, he could end up being a top 3 rookie RB this year, but I’m not sure if he’s going to get 1,000 yards.