QB - Obviously, Tom Brady. While it is definitely within reach to set the new TD passing record, it’s not a guarantee. If he gets pulled with one or two games to go in the season, that may hinder his chances significantly, but since they get to play Philly, Miami, and the Jets down the stretch, keep an eye out.

RB - As much as I’d like to buck the trend and NOT say Adrian Peterson, he has 1242 total yards and 9 total TDs, which puts him in first and tied for first amongst RBs in the NFL. He also has almost 300 more yards rushing than his next closest competitor, Willie Parker. Being a rookie, he may not have the stamina to keep playing like this all year, but if they keep him fresh with 10-12 carries per game to Chester Taylor, I see no reason why he can’t hit 1800+ yards. I think 2000 might be a stretch, though.

WR - Randy Moss appears to be the easy choice here. Averaging over 100 ypg and with 12 TDs in 9 games, he’s on pace for some very impressive numbers. A case can be made for TJ Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards, and even Wes Welker, whose value exceeds the admirable numbers he has put up so far (651/7).

TE - Through the first few games, Antonio Gates was the easy choice. With the recent resurgence of Ladainian Tomlinson, Gates’ value has diminished. Enter Jason Witten. Of the top 3 scoring TEs, Witten is on the team that has the most overall weapons and the best record. Having watched a few of Dallas’s games this year, Witten is a huge reason for Tony Romo’s success. Rather than checking down to his backs for 1-3 yards, he can check down to Witten for 8-12 yards. If Braylon Edwards wasn’t having such a great season, Kellen Winslow would probably be the number one choice here, but alas, that’s not happened so far.

DEF - The defense I’d want from week to week would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve had a few hiccups this season, but they have allowed a league low 92 points. The talking heads can go on about yardage allowed and all that mess, but you don’t lose a game because you gave up 250 yards on the ground, you lose a game when that 250 ends up allowing more points than your offense scored that day. Tennessee, somehow gets honorable mention mostly due to their surprise factor.

HC - Wade Phillips. The one Head Coach who is avoiding controversy this year is Phillips. He has taken a good Dallas team and made them into a great one just by tweaking a few things and a much more light-hearted coaching philosophy. Even without Terry Glenn for pretty much the entire season, the offense hasn’t skipped a beat and the defense plays respectably enough every week.

Surprise Team - It’s tough to decide between two teams vying for this award. The Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Their forumlas are similar in that there is potency in the offense, but GB has also stepped up on the Defensive side of the ball. This is why I’m going to go with GB. Detroit looks like a playoff team, but their schedule so far has been much easier, with their real tests coming in the second half of the season.

Surprise Player - There was speculation as to how well Randy Moss would play based on his past two seasons in Oakland. Many thought he had lost a step in terms of speed and desire. While he has proven them wrong, that’s not who I’m going with. Braylon Edwards has come from virtually nowhere to be one of the top producing WRs in the NFL. Some of the writers on this board knew he had the potential, but the rest of us who follow the NFL want results right now, or you will be written off. Edwards is the perfect example of a WR coming out and playing up to his ability in his third year. I’m not sure if the maturation of Edwards has helped Derek Anderson or vice versa, but they’re both playing incredibly well.

Letdown Team - San Francisco 49ers. They were the team everyone had picked to make a wild card run this year, and begin their dynasty as a playoff contender for the next few. Something terrible has happened to that offense and they are at the bottom of the league. Injuries can be accounted for most of it, but the WRs they have given Alex Smith to throw to are just poor. Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Alex Smith have all missed time due to injury, and unless they all get healthy, get a good (not old) WR, and add more depth to the offensive line, they might have taken more of a step back than forward this year.

Letdown Player - We can’t include players that have succumbed to season ending injury, because it’s a long season and you never know what MIGHT have been. So, of the active players, the biggest letdown this year goes to Marc Bulger. He did play with broken ribs, yes. But his passer rating currently stands at 64.3, which is 31st in the NFL, behind the likes of Cleo Lemon and Kyle Boller. In six games he has thrown only three TDs while being intercepted eight times. While he regularly is close to the top of the league in yardage and three straight years of a rating over 92, Bulger has only completed one full season, and that was 2006. So, it appears that the term “injury prone” is finally going to get stuck to him, and unless he can do something about it, STL might have to look at taking a QB with the number 1,2, or 3 pick this coming year, depending on how badly the other teams at the bottom do from here on out.

There has been a lot of hype over this week’s matchup between the Colts and Pats. The AOL Sports Blog has a good track on how Manning’s 2004 season through eight weeks compares with Brady’s first eight weeks. Through those games, they match up as so:

Manning: 26 TDs, 4 INTs, 5 sacks
Brady: 30 TDs, 2 INTs, 8 sacks

Keep in mind that Brady has been kept in the game longer than needed on several occasions so far, and once/if they lock up home field advantage, he will miss one, maybe even two weeks of playing time. But, between you and me, I’m pretty sure Belichick will be sure he gets at least 50 TD passes to prove a point.

For the record, I got the Pats this week, but I’ll be rooting for Indy. NE just seems too much like the Yankees for my taste.

After two weeks, several teams have disappointed their fans with lackluster starts. The New Orleans Saints is among those teams. Let’s look at the problems.

Last season’s surprise is off to a disastrous 0-2 start, especially the divisional loss to the Bucs. Head coach Sean Payton has fallen in love with the wrong back. Let’s play the “Player A” vs “Player B” game.

Player A: 20 carries, 87 yards, 4.4 Avg, 1 fumble, Long of 15
Player B: 22 carries, 65 yards, 3.0 Avg, 2 fumbles, Long of 10

Who should be getting the ball more? Who is the more explosive back? As you guessed, Player A Is Deuce McAllister, and Player B is Reggie Bush. Bush still dances too much to be an every down running back. His career rushing average is 3.6! (McAllister’s despite being on a bad team for a number of years, is 4.3).

McAllister needs to carry the ball 20+ for them to be successful and it is time for Sean Payton to realize that.

For a team with defensive flaws, the Saints only drafted one defensive player in the first 4 rounds and he was a developmental cornerback. They also misspent in free agency, bringing in the over the hill Brian Simmons and the Cover 2 corner Jason David. Jason David is an acceptable Cover 2 corner… unfortunately the Saints run mostly man coverage.

It is too early to give up on the Saints especially in the NFC. They should be in contention for a playoff spot and possibly the divisional crown. But they must get back to rushing with McAllister, protecting Brees, and figure out a way to limit the deep ball against.

Week #1 of the College Football season is in the books and Matt MacCoy, War Room Report Analyst and Lead Offensive Scout takes a look back at the noteworthy performances from this past weekend’s games and who’s stock might be “rising”, “falling”, or who’s stock remains “status quo”:

RISING:
Brian Brohm QB Louisville: The early favorite to be the #1 overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft didn’t disappoint in his 2007 debut. Displaying accuracy and the ability to make the big play he turned his 16 completions into a whopping 375 yards and seems to be making a smooth transition to any changes that may have been made in the coaching switch from Bobby Petrino to Steve Kragthorpe. I understand the performance was against Murray State, so we shouldn’t go overboard with excitement, but to see Brohm in mid-season form and showing no residual effects from his injury last season is an excellent sign.

Colt Brennan QB Hawaii: I realize that Northern Colorado may not have a Division I caliber defense, but throwing for 416 yards and 6 TDs—virtually of which was in the first half is still stunning. Look, I get the arguments, the guy is from a pass-happy offense and he is on the smallish side…duly noted. Colt Brennan isn’t Timmy Chang, and he isn’t David Klinger or any other pass-crazy, non pro-prospect reference you want to throw out there. He is freakishly accurate with his passes, displayed by his 34 of 40 performance on Saturday night…yes that is an 85% completion percentage. He needs to bulk up, and needs to show he can take snaps under center and still remain as accurate, but you are looking at a 1^st rounder in the 2008 Draft at this point.

DeSean Jackson WR California: The kid needs to bulk up…that is all. He is as an electrifying a player that college football has to offer and for per touch excitement, only Reggie Bush and Devin Hester come to mind when explaining how skilled Jackson is. He’s not a kick returner playing wide receiver ala Ted Ginn Jr., he is a wide receiver with breathtaking abilities as a return man. As the draft approaches I’m sure we will here the critics break him down due to his size, and their fear that he won’t hold up at the next level. The fears are legit, but drafting DeSean Jackson gives you a Steve Smith or Santana Moss type player on offense RIGHT NOW.

Andre Woodson QB Kentucky: His stock is going to continue to rise until his name is mentioned in debate around draft circles whether a team would be better off drafting him or Brian Brohm. Andre Woodson needs to solidify such hyperbole by showing up in the big games in the SEC, and some wins in these games wouldn’t hurt, but 20 of 29 for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns to no interceptions is a good start.

Ben Olsen QB UCLA: Now is the time for the former prep star to realize his potential. If he can stay away from injuries he can lead this team to some big wins. He has the attributes the NFL scouts covet, and throwing 5 touchdowns in his 2007 debut put everyone in the Pac 10 on alert. I would like to his completion percentage escalate to some degree, but right now, I’m nitpicking.

Steve Slaton RB West Virginia: He is not a complete back quite yet, and he will need some work at the next level, as well as to bulk up a little bit, that being said, he is the most exciting RB in the country Darren McFadden included. Every time Steve Slaton touches the ball your on the edge of your seat thinking he is going to go the distance, and on many occasions he does just that. If he can display improvement in catching the football out of the backfield, he will rival McFadden for the top selection of a RB in the 2008 Draft.

STATUS QUO:
John David Booty QB USC: The Heisman favorite had a ho-hum 206 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Idaho on Saturday. Nothing to get too excited about, but if you were USC would you get that excited about playing Idaho? His overall performances will get better, but he remains the favorite for the Heisman and a first-day selection.

Darren McFadden RB Arkansas: With a 151 yards rushing and a TD plus a 42-yard TD pass, Darren McFadden made the country well aware that he is the most versatile back in the country and still second to none at the position when it comes to his draft status. Steve Slaton may be on his heels, but with performances like this, McFadden will keep him at bay.

Ray Rice RB Rutgers: 25 carries for 184 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ray Rice is the workhorse for the Rutgers offense, this is well known. After his tremendous sophomore campaign it is tough to impress. He may not be as dynamic or talented as Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton, but Ray Rice gives you steady production at the position, and in this class, 3^rd RB is no slap in the face.

Matt Ryan QB Boston College: Matt Ryan has displayed a complete control of the Boston College offense. 408 yards and 5 touchdowns are pretty impressive considering they were against defending ACC Champion Wake Forest. I’m not sure how high Ryan’s ‘ceiling’ is as far as his draft potential goes, but with consistent performances in 2007 his name will be in the mix as the 4^th-5^th QB to come off the board.

Erik Ainge QB Tennessee: Some scouts are down on Erik Ainge entering the 2007 season, but I am not one of them. His performance on Saturday was a solid outing. With a running game that is below par and wide receiver options that are unfamiliar Ainge still managed to go 32 of 47 for 271 yards with 3 touchdowns to no interceptions in a hostile Golden Bear crowd, all with a broken finger. I know he has less mobility than the Statue of Liberty, but the kid can throw from the pocket and he is accurate and can make all the throws you could want. This might be high praise, but at the end of the day I see more Carson Palmer then Byron Leftwich in Erik Ainge.

Ian Johnson RB Boise State: As far as college running backs go this guy is a stud. His off-season workouts, especially speed and agility drills are going to be of great importance to Ian Johnson. He is tough as nails, and there is a lot to like about the guy, but again, just not sure how high his potential ‘ceiling’ is.

Felix Jones RB Arkansas: 12 rushes for 129 yards and a TD. Another 10 yard+ average game for Jones, but he remains overshadowed by teammate Darren McFadden. I am afraid people don’t realize how good Jones is.

FALLING:
Michigan Wolverines: After the stunning defeat vs. Appalachian State the Wolverines have seen the 2007 season go down in flames and now some of their potential high round picks are going to have their abilities questioned. Jake Long and Mike Hart had solid performances so their stock should remain about where it was prior to the game. However, I’m concerned about Chad Henne and Mario Manningham. Henne connected on only 51.4% of his passes vs. Appalachian State? This sends up ‘red flags’ for me. You expect in his senior season your QB to step up and save the day in such a situation, and Henne played well in the 4^th quarter, but it was too little too late for me. Manningham had only 3 catches for 66 yards, and 1 was the 46-yarder that came in that desperation heave. The Wolverines need to bounce back, and bounce back quick.

Oklahoma State: The supposed “Greatest Offense in the World” fell flat on its face on Saturday against Georgia. They looked out of sync for most of the ball game. Adarius Bowman had an ok performance and has the tools to succeed at the next level, so only slight concern surrounding him, but as far as Bobby Reid and Dantrell Savage goes, they need excellent 2007 seasons to impress the scouts, and they got off on the wrong foot on Saturday, another team that needs to turn it around in a hurry.

Early Doucet WR LSU: What I saw from the LSU Tigers offense in their first game I did not like. They seemed to have very conservative play calling, and in order to display the skills of a top WR like Doucet, they need to open up the playbook a bit more and have more down field passing. His end game numbers, 9 catches for 78 yards and a TD are ok, but just watching the offense, if the play calling remains the same, Doucet could be in for some poor performances in 2007.

Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon: A War Room Report favorite struggled out of the gates, having two teammates rush for more yards than him. I would personally like to see the Oregon coaching staff feature him more in 2007, give him more carries. He is a bruising tailback that should be able to wear down defenses by the time the 4^th quarter rolls around, I’m just not sure if 14 touches a game is going to get it down. I would like to see his workload doubled.

Courtney Tennial RB Tulsa: The former Oklahoma product did not play in Week 1 and it was announced that he will miss the entire 2007 season with an ankle injury suffered in pre-season drills. Tennial has been a hard luck player since entering college, being stuck behind Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma and now suffering this injury. Despite the fact that he has only been a featured back for one year, Tennial will have to petition the NCAA for a 6^th year of eligibility if he hopes to play in 2008.

OTHER PERFORMANCES OF NOTE:
Omar Cuff RB Delaware: Omar Cuff tied a Division I-AA record when he rushed for 7 touchdowns against William & Mary in the opener. He recorded 296 yards of offense to boot. He is a versatile, speedy back and could build momentum to a possible draft selection.

Through a partnership with U-sports.com, the War Room Report is running the first annual War Room Report Fantasy College Football League. We invited members of other top draft sites and recently conducted our draft. For those that have never played Fantasy College Football, be sure to check out U-sports. For those left to draft, here is a run down of the results.

Pick 1 - Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii
Rob Tribbett, War Room Report

Maybe a more obvious pick than even LaDainian Tomlinson, Brennan averaged an incredible 39 ppg last season and figures to post similar numbers this season.

Pick 2 - Chase Holbrook, QB, New Mexico State
Justin Davis, War Room Report

Last season’s #2 ranked player, Holbrook should flourish again in coach Hal Mumme’s system. WR Chris Williams gives Holbrook a reliable target.

Pick 3 - P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin
Shawn Dangerfield, RamsRevenge.com

After the top 2 passing friendly QBs go, Shawn Dangerfield takes P.J. Hill, who was explosive last season as a freshman and should be relied on even more this season with a new QB in Madison.

Pick 4- Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech
Matt Bilonti, DraftDaddy.com

Harrell averaged 28 ppg last season, but another year in Mike Leach’s system should benefit the former top recruit. Losing top WRs from last year in Joel Filani and Jarrett Hicks may hurt a little, but in the system, Harrell should be fine.

Pick 5 - Pat White, QB, West Virginia
Jared Donnelly, TheFootballExpert.com

White also averaged 28 ppg last year and there is little to suggest that the dual threat QB will regress in 2008.

Pick 6 - Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia
Matt MacCoy, War Room Report

White’s running mate, Slaton, is the 2nd RB off the board. Slaton and White should combine to terrorize Big East defenses in 2007.

Pick 7 - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Chris Otwell, War Room Report

The fast rising QB prospect surprises a bit as a first round pick, but he should put up huge numbers again as the Wildcat defense struggles to stop opponents. He has talent around him with Rafael Little, Keenan Burton, Dicky Lyons, and Jacob Tamme to make a big impact in 2007.

Pick 8 - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Robby Trail

The consenus #1 prospect for the 2008 NFL Draft, McFadden, due to splitting some carries with Felix Jones and concerns about the quality of his Arkansas team slides to 8.

Coming later in the week, more draft notes!

The numbers are not as important as who I think will be the top 3 in each category. You’ll notice that I have LT rushing for fewer TDs than he did in 2006, but he’ll still get a ton of receptions and scores through the air. Same goes for Steven Jackson. There are some other stats that are not included that can affect a person’s fantasy value, so don’t misconstrue these predictions. Vince Young (in my opinion) is not (yet) a very good quarterback, but his wheels move him from bottom 5 QB to top 15. Sleepers do not indicate fantasy sleepers, merely persons that have a chance to slip into the top 3 in one of their respective categories.

PASSING

Yards:

Marc Bulger - 4,400
Drew Brees - 4,300
Peyton Manning - 4,150

TDs:

Marc Bulger - 34
Peyton Manning - 32
Tom Brady - 31

Sleeper - Jon Kitna

RUSHING

Yards:

Ladainian Tomlinson - 1,750
Steven Jackson - 1,700
Frank Gore - 1,675

TDs:

Steven Jackson - 20
Ladainian Tomlinson - 18
Willie Parker - 15

Sleeper - Edgerrin James

RECEIVING

Yards:

Chad Johnson - 1,550
Reggie Wayne - 1,400
Torry Holt - 1,300

TDs:

Terrell Owens - 15
Torry Holt - 13
Chad Johnson - 12

Sleeper - Roy Williams

With the recent news that Falcons QB Michael Vick has been indicted on charges related to a dog fighting operation he was allegedly involved in, the Falcons may look to bring in added security behind Joey Harrington. New head coach Bobby Petrino did not expect to be in a position where he was forced to rely on Harrington. The Falcons would love to have Matt Schaub still, but the suggestion that they should have turned down the strong offer they got from Houston is ludicrous.

Miami’s QB rotation continues. The A.J. Feeley and Daunte Culpepper experiments both failed, so now the Dolphins are going with Trent Green and 26 year old rookie John Beck. The Dolphins finally jettisoned Culpepper, but the question to where he will end up is an interesting one. Most teams have addressed their QB situations, leaving only a few possiblities. He could return to Minnesota, who is going into the season with Tavarias Jackson and Brooks Bollinger, or he could finally give the Jaguars the QB they have longed for.

However, if Culpepper did go to Jacksonville, it likely would produce a domino effect, with either David Garrard or Byron Leftwich likely to be released or traded. A sleeper destination for Culpepper could be Seattle, who desperately needs a back up QB to Matt Hasselback.

Kelly Holcomb, who likely is the odd man out in Philadelphia, is the likely candidate for the Vikings, while Atlanta may decide to roll the dice that Vick will not be disciplined…and if he is, that Harrington can shoulder the load.  That could lead Culpepper to take a one year deal with a team, in hopes of finding a spot to land after the 2008 season.

Various media outlets are reporting that Paul Oliver, CB, Georgia, was selected by the San Diego Chargers in Round 4 of the 2007 Supplemental Draft. The War Room Report nailed that one, which is probably a good value pick for the Chargers. The Chargers have the ability to develop Oliver. There are concerns about how ‘NFL Ready’ Oliver is, after inconsistent performances at Georgia and a lackluster showing in his workouts. It should be noted however, that Oliver was a disadvantage from traditional prospects in that he did not have the luxury of extensive training camps for the workouts.

Oliver seemed to be better suited for a Cover 2 system than the physical, aggressive style, that the Chargers employ, but he will be no better than a dime back this season for the Chargers, so the coaching staff hopes to use the next NFL season as a replacement for Oliver’s senior season at Georgia.

Jared Gaither of Maryland slide to Round 5 and the Baltimore Ravens. This is an excellent pick that needs a long term replacement for Jonathan Ogden. The veteran presence on the Ravens line, specifically Ogden, may help mature Gaither. Most concerns about Gaither’s NFL future were based on off the field issues, not physical performance. Gaither and Ben Grubbs could be a terrific tandem on the left side of the line in the future for the punishing Ravens.

The Free Agency period is a lot of fun for not only NFL teams, but is an interesting period of time for fantasy football fanatics as well. This year there were many important moves on the offensive side of the ball that will have a large fantasy impact on teams in the upcoming fantasy football season. Here are the moves that the War Room Report think could impact your fantasy rosters next season.

Instant Impacts

This group of free agents will immediately impact their teams and be instant impact players in the fantasy market.

WR- Randy Moss- New England Patriots - Brady should make Moss an upper tier player in the fantasy world again.

RB-Thomas Jones- New York Jets- The Jets have been searching for a RB for a couple years now with Martin aging, they finally found their man.

RB-Willis McGahee-Baltimore Ravens- Willis finds new life in a much better situation offensively. Look for him to be a top fantasy running back once again.

RB-Jamal Lewis-Cleveland Browns- Cleveland could have landed their running back of the future here, though he is not the answer long term, fantasy wise, he will definitely make some noise this year in Cleveland.

RB-Ahman Green-Houston Texans- Green has had injury problems in the recent past, but is looking to regain his fantasy value in Houston, where he will be sure to be fed the ball often. If healthy, he will put up some pretty decent numbers.

QB-Matt Schaub-Houston Texans- Its time for Schaub to live up to the hype. The question is, how many times will be he on his back, and will he get more chances to make plays behind a makeshift Texan line.

RB-Travis Henry-Denver Broncos- You could put just about anyone with decent size and speed in this system and expect them to run for 1000 yards. Now, with Henry’s talent, look for great things in Denver.

WR-Darrell Jackson-San Francisco 49ers- With Bryant gone in SF, the Niners needed a go to guy. The question is whether or not Jackson still has the legs to put up solid fantasy numbers. If he stays healthy, he will be a consistent contributor in San Francisco immediately.

RB-Dominic Rhodes-Oakland Raiders- Rhodes wants to prove the grass is greener on the other side and will get his opportunity. One thing to consider is just how much will he carry the ball with his team behind this year.

WR-Joe Horn-Atlanta Falcons- Michael Vick has not had a wide receiver of this talent level so far in Atlanta. Horn could make some noise in Atlanta, lets just hope Vick throws elsewhere other than TE.

Serious Considerations

These guys should also find their ways and have solid fantasy seasons, some of these players could be impact players before the season is over.

WR-Donte Stallworth-New England Patriots- Another solid move by Belicheck. With the type of deal he signed, he needs to prove he can stay healthy.

WR-Brandon Stokley-Denver Broncos- Smith is getting old, Stokley is a nice option, but he has to compete with Marshall for the ball.

TE-Daniel Graham-Denver Broncos- Another weapon in Cutler’s arsenal, but will there be enough passes to go around?

TE-Randy McMichael-St Louis Rams- Fits in nicely in Linehan’s offense. The Rams could have one of the best offenses in the league next year.

RB-Reuben Droughns-New York Giants- Will get some carries behind Jacobs - If Jacobs can not handle the load, Droughns could be an intriguing sleeper.

RB-Tatum Bell-Detroit Lions- Will be a nice 1-2 punch along side Jones if Jones is healthy. The Lions backfield needs to be observed carefully.

QB-David Carr-Carolina Panthers- Won’t start immediately, but may see time if Delhomme struggles again this year and could surprise.

WR-Drew Bennett-St Louis Rams- Look for Bennett to excel in the slot for the Scott Linehan with Torry Holt on the outside.

Others to consider

This group of free agents also need some consideration in deeper leagues.

WR-Kelly Washington-New England Patriots

QB-Brad Johnson-Dallas Cowboys

WR-Kevin Curtis-Philadelphia Eagles

QB-Jeff Garcia & Jake Plummer- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Off Season Key Moves

This group of defensive players are players to take serious considerations when drafting a teams defensive unit, or as an individual defensive player.

LB-Adalius Thomas-New England Patriots

DT-Darwin Walker-Buffalo Bills

LB-Donnie Edwards-Kansas City Chiefs

LB-Takeo Spikes-Philadelphia Eagles

LB-London Fletcher-Washington Redskins

CB-Nate Clements-San Francisco 49ers

CB-Fred Smoot-Washington Redskins

SS- Michael Lewis-San Fransisco 49ers

DE-Patrick Kerney-Seattle Seahawks

The first round of mini-camps are over and there is a lot of news relevant to fantasy football and the 07 draft.

• Zach Miller impressed the Raiders staff in the first mini camp under Lane Kiffin and has a real good chance to start. Miller will be a sneaky pick in fantasy leagues if you can grab him at the end of the draft. He should be a threat in the red zone for the Raiders.
• The Panthers appear ready to go forward with Nate Salley as a starter at safety. We thought the Panthers would address the position on Day One of the draft, but they did not. Salley will have to step up his game if the Panthers want to be a playoff team.
• We also thought the Bengals would add a strong side linebacker in the draft. However Cincinnati is going forward with Rashad Jenty as the strong side starter. New addition Ed Hartwell and new starter Ahmad Brooks will give the Bengals an entirely new LB corps that will be responsible for improving a defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season.
• 2nd round draft pick Brandon Jackson got the bulk of the carries at RB for the Packers at their recent rookie camp. Jackson will be competing with Vernand Morency for the starting job. The winner could be a fantasy sleeper available in Round 3 or 4 because of an improving Packers offensive line that uses the zone blocking scheme made popular in Denver.
• The Titans will be trying first round pick Michael Griffin at cornerback. The move is surprising - the Titans could have selected Griffin’s All American teammate, Aaron Ross, a natural corner at pick #19.
• We were not big fans of Tyler Palko’s chances for NFL success, but the former Pitt Panther is rightfully ecstatic about going to New Orleans. Sean Payton is one of the top offensive minds in the league and helped turn Tony Romo from an undrafted free agent to an NFL Starter.
• One of the most surprising things to come out of the mini-camps was the news that the Lions are completely altering Drew Stanton’s mechanics. Mike Martz and the Lions staff were impressed with Stanton’s athleticism but felt he needed to change his throwing motion. Stanton will likely not see the field in 2007, but could be the Lions starter in 2008.

The odds are stacked against John Beck and other Round 2 QBs.

One of the War Room Report writers, Justin Davis, spelled out his theory on drafting a quarterback earlier this year. After seeing Philadelphia, Miami, and Detroit target 2nd round QBs in Kevin Kolb, John Beck, and Drew Stanton, I thought it would be an interesting theory to test.

The Davis Theory:

“If you want a QB, go up to Round 1 and take one of the top guys. If not, you are wasting a pick”

What do the results show? Did the Dolphins, Eagles, and Lions make a mistake?

I studied the 1998-2005 drafts, ignoring the 2006 and 2007 draft as it is too early to draw any conclusions. Below are the results. Some of the categories could be disputed, but the results are clear.

QBs taken in Round 2 +

79 selected

Successes:
Tom Brady
Matt Hasselback
Drew Brees
Marc Bulger (4/79) (5%)

Possible/marginal successes:
Brian Griese
Aaron Brooks
Chris Simms
Matt Schaub (4/79) (5%)

So if you wait until after Rd 1, you have a 10% chance of getting an Aaron Brooks type and a 90% chance of getting someone worse.

QBs selected in Round 1

23 selected

Successes:
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Donovan Mcnabb
Peyton Manning (4/23) (17%)

Potential/Marginal successes:
Alex Smith
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
Chad Pennington
Daunte Culpepper (10/23) (43%)

So if you take a QB in Round 1, you have a 60% chance of getting a Chad Pennington type, with a higher % of getting a Manning esque player. You even have a 50% greater chance of getting a Manning or Palmer than you do of getting an Aaron Brooks if you wait.

Furthermore, of the projected starters in the 2007 season, below are the draft positions:

Round 1: 17 (53.1%)
Round 2: 3 (9.4%)
Round 3: 4 (12.5)
Round 4-7: 3 (9.4%)
Undrafted: 5 (15.6%)

So the odds are stacked in the favor of a team drafting their starting QB in Round 1. The only QBs currently starting that were drafted in Round 2 are:

Brett Favre (1991)
Drew Brees (2001)
Tavaris Jackson (2006)

It should be noted that Favre and Brees were drafted 33rd and 32nd overall respectively.

The odds are distinctly against Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, or John Beck succeeding. All three have positive qualities that may allow them to succeed, but they would be going against recent history.

The War Room Report staff debates the most intrguing questions in our Hot Reads feature. This week we put our writers on the spot in our post draft edition.

1. Who is your early pick for 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Matt MacCoy, War Room Report Scout - I would normally vote for a Quarterback who is going to get significant playing time or a running back who would start from Day One due to the fact that the players at these positions touch the more most frequently. However, in the case of the 2007 NFL Draft class there is one offensive player who stands above the rest and will shine in the National Football League at that is Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson. If Mike Furrey can catch 100 passes in the Detroit Lion offense, what do you think this “super freak” is gonna do? Expect countless highlights and spectacular plays and expect him to be the 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Justin Davis, War Room Report College Writer - The 2007 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year will be Robert Meachem, WR New Orleans Saints. Adding Meachem to an embarassment of riches of skill position players will make the Saints offense nearly impossible to defend. After watching Marques Colston’s transition from small college competition to the NFL last season, it doesn’t seem like too much of a reach to think that Meachem will step in with at least comparable production after dominating in the SEC last year. After dumping Joe Horn this offseason the second WR spot will be Meachem’s to lose going into training camp. A player with his physical tools will be a great complement to Drew Brees’ arsenal.

Rob Tribbett, War Room Report Editor - The offensive rookie of the year award is almost always won by a running back. Adrian Peterson is the top running back in the class, but he is likely to split time with Chester Taylor and plays on a team with a poor QB. Marshawn Lynch, despite being second in talent to Peterson, will be the 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Lynch is a shifty back who can also catch passes out of the backfield. He will get the bulk of carries for the Bills who have a better offense than Minnesota. In the long run, Peterson will reign supreme, but if he can stay healthy, Lynch will be the big winner in 2007.

Chris Otwell, War Room Report Writer - Calvin Johnson…..I think that Calvin will get the ball an awful lot this year in Detroit as teams will continue to double team Roy Williams. Johnson has some pretty freakish physical abilities, and will be asked to step in and contribute right away.

Justin Moore, War Room Report Fantasy Writer - This early in the year, I am going to take Marshawn Lynch. There is no one impeding his progress to be the #1 back in Buffalo, and since he was drafted in the first round (12th overall), that pretty much solidifies the intentions of the Bills organization to let him gain all the yards on the ground for the next 5-7 years. Anthony Thomas is an excellent and reliable complement to Lynch’s running style, which will help to keep the rookie fresh all year. A slowly improving offense that was really only missing a play maker in the backfield will make this Lynch’s year.

2. Who is your early pick for 2007 Defensive Rookie of the Year?

Matt MacCoy - The NFL loves players who pressure the Quarterback and produce a high number of sacks. I believe the 2007 Defensive Rookie of the Year will come down to two players in similar situations– Pittsburgh Steelers Rookie OLB Lawrence Timmons and Dallas Cowboys Rookie OLB Anthony Spencer. The voting could be close, however, I am going to give the slight edge to Anthony Spencer. Spencer will be the primary beneficiary of playing opposite DeMarcus Ware in the Cowboys 3-4 scheme. Having Ware out there will not allow teams to focus their blocking scheme to Spencer’s side. Anthony Spencer is also playing for a media darling in the Dallas Cowboys, so he will get exposure for sure. He could produce double digits in sacks and snatch the 2007 Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Justin Davis - The 2007 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year will be Patrick Willis, ILB San Francisco 49ers. Willis was a tackling machine in the SEC with little help in front of or around him. On the newly revamped 49ers defense he is capable of even more. With all the additions this offseason at OLB, S, and CB they needed a playmaker in the middle and they’ve found their ideal fit in Willis. His football instincts and sideline to sideline speed give him the ability to be involved with nearly every play and impact the game each snap. The combination of his talent and the chance to play MLB for a Mike Nolan defense will make him the best defensive rookie this season.

Rob Tribbett - The 2007 Defensive Rookie of the Year will be Anthony Spencer of the Dallas Cowboys. Spencer is an explosive pass rusher that will produce the stat that voters love most - sacks. Spencer gets the opportunity to play across from DeMarcus Ware, a top speed rusher in his own right, and that should leave the rookie free to terrorize QBs. Spencer also will benefit from playing in the aggressive, blitz heavy system of Wade Phillips. Expect double digit sacks and a trophy for the former Purdue star.

Chris Otwell - Patrick Willis…..Same scenario with Patrick, with him stepping into a situation that he could start off the bat, and contribute heavily, makes quite a difference in SF.

Justin Moore - Defensive rookie of the year is a little harder to predict, where all your talent is not necessarily drafted in the first 50 picks. There was a lot of depth this year, with teams filling need slots in the 5th and 6th rounds. The consensus seems to be that LaRon Landry is the best defensive player out of the draft, but pairing him up with Sean Taylor only takes that much more focus off of him. The AP tends to pick linebackers for ROY, having chosen them 6 of the last 7 seasons. That being said, Patrick Willis, San Francisco’s pick at #11 overall will have the biggest impact on his new team. There are very few weaknesses in his game, and the few that exist can be corrected. SF is on the upswing again this year, this time from on the defensive side of the ball.

3. What team had the best draft in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Matt MacCoy - It is a close call this between several teams–the Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Minnesota Vikings all receive an ‘A’ from me upon review of their respective draft classes, but if I had to choose one above all the rest, I would have to choose the Minnesota Vikings. They got a stud RB with their first selection in Adrian Peterson, then followed up by getting an excellent WR prospect in Sidney Rice in Round 2. The Vikings continued to select excellent prospects when they addressed their defense in Rounds 3 and 4 when they selected CB Marcus McCauley and DE Brian Robinson. There were several times during the NFL Draft process where Peterson, Rice, and McCauley were all considered potential 1st round selections, and the Vikings drafted all three. They took another weapon for their young QB Tavaris Jackson, when they selected Aundrae Allison in Round 5 and got sensational value when they were able to pick Rufus Alexander in Round 6. All in all, it would be difficult for me to argue that any other team in the National Football League had a better draft then did the Minnesota Vikings.

Justin Davis - The best draft class of 2007 in my opinion was selected by the Carolina Panthers. After trading with the Jets, the Panthers were able to grab 4 of the top 36 players on our big board, all at positions of need. Beason and Jarrett should crack the starting lineup immediately while Kalil and Johnson should be in competition for a spot at the least. Just a great draft for a team that lost several close games after injuries to key starters early in the season. This draft class should reinforce the depth with quality young players needed to make a run into the playoffs.

Rob Tribbett - The best draft class was the Carolina Panthers. Carolina did a masterful job of trading back and still acquiring the player they targeted. While I am not as high on Beason as some others, he still should be an instant contributor. Dwayne Jarrett and Ryan Kalil both should start in 2007, with Jarrett an ideal fit next to deep threat Steve Smith. Charles Johnson does not play a position of immediate need, but concerns about Mike Rucker’s health could have him in the lineup sooner than expected. Johnson was a steal by the Panthers and has all of the tools to be a difference maker in the NFL. Ryne Robinson will make an impact as a return man and allow Smith to concentrate on being a receiver and second day picks Tim Shaw and Donte Rosario can also become starters. C.J. Wilson was a terrific value in the 7th round.

Chris Otwell - The Cleveland Browns……. Getting two top 10 picks in the first round was huge for the browns. Not only did they get a top rated QB, but they got the top rated LT to protect him. Those two together madeCleveland the highest rated team in the draft this year.

Justin Moore - Sticking with the San Francisco theme, from the standpoint of immediate impact, I feel the 49ers had the best draft. Potential DROY in Patrick Willis, Joe Staley immediately starting at OT, and by grabbing another starter at DE/DT with Ray McDonald with their 4th pick makes this draft class very good. While they could have passed on Jason Hill in the third round, everything else fell into place for them. Tarell Brown at 147th overall could end up being a great value pick if he is consistent and avoids injury. The other 4 picks will be suitable backups if they make the roster, and while not ranked very high, the Niners do need a solid RB option behind Frank Gore, so they took a flyer on Thomas Clayton.