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Sedrick Ellis moves up to the top five of the latest War Room Report Mock Draft

The 2008 NFL Draft picture is becoming clearer, and as always, the War Room Report provides one of the most accurate mock drafts on the web. Unlike other sites, we are not changing our picks solely to create a furor or bring in web hits, but only change the mock draft selections when our thorough analysis shows they are warranted. 

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick: Jake Long) 

We have been projecting Jake Long here since very early in the draft process and now many others are coming into agreement. Miami would love to trade down, but the depth of the draft and the high cost of paying the first overall pick are likely to limit movement. There are really only three options for Miami here, with Chris Long and Vernon Gholston the others. Jake Long is ready to step right in at left tackle, allowing Vernon Carey to move back to the right side. Miami is coached by a former offensive line coach and wishes to install a power running attack that needs dominate players at the point of attack. While Jake Long may not be at the level of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, he is close to that level and has one of the lowest bust factors of any project in the class. He will be an ideal first building block for the Parcells/Ireland era

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia  (Previous Pick: Chris Long)

It looks likely to me that Chris Long and Jake Long go #1 and #2 in some order. The Rams would like to take Jake Long, as they have seen the importance of a solid offensive line and Orlando Pace’s future is uncertain. However, if Jake Long is gone, look for the Rams to opt for a defensive end over the top two tackle prospects. The Rams have 2007 picks Clifton Ryan and Adam Carriker inside and lack any depth at defensive end outside of veteran Leonard Little. Chris Long should project well to a 4-3 defensive end position, with the ability to be equally stout against the rush and the pass. Gholston would get some consideration here, but Long’s on the field performance and intangibles make him the pick over Gholston. Glenn Dorsey is the highest ranked player on the board and could get some consideration, but in the end, look for the more pressing need to be the pick for the Rams.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (Previous Pick: Glenn Dorsey)

As we mentioned in the last edition of the mock draft, despite the Falcons pressing need at QB, Matt Ryan is not worthy of this selection. The Falcons, who have a multitude of round 2 picks, could likely trade back up into Round 1 to select their second ranked QB. Glenn Dorsey was dominate at LSU and would immediately step into the starting lineup for the Falcons, who released their three technique defensive tackle, Rod Coleman, in the offseason. New Falcons coach Mike Smith and new GM Thomas Dimitroff both come from teams that placed huge emphasis on the interior line and Glenn Dorsey is the best interior defensive line prospect we have seen in at least ten years. The Falcons will select Dorsey to boost their defensive line, unless they are convinced that Matt Ryan can develop into a franchise QB, which seems unlikely at this point.

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 Is Keith Rivers going to be a Top Ten Pick in the 2008 NFL Draft?

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick: Jake Long) 

Jake Long has been our projection here for the last two mocks, as the Dolphins really do not have a left tackle on the roster. Miami would love to trade down, but the depth of the draft and the high cost of paying the first overall pick are likely to limit movement. There are really only three options for Miami here, with Chris Long and Vernon Gholston, being the other options. Jake Long is ready to step right in at left tackle, allowing Vernon Carey to move back to the right side. Miami is coached by a former offensive line coach and wishes to install a power running attack that needs dominate players at the point of attack. While Jake Long may not be at the level of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, he is close to that level and has one of the lowest bust factors of any project in the class. He will be an ideal first building block for the Parcells/Ireland era.

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia  (Previous Pick: Chris Long) 

It looks likely to me that Chris Long and Jake Long go #1 and #2 in some order. The Rams would like to take Jake Long, as they have seen the importance of a solid offensive line and Orlando Pace’s future is uncertain. However, if Jake Long is gone, look for the Rams to opt for a defensive end over the top two tackle prospects. The Rams have 2007 picks Clifton Ryan and Adam Carriker inside and lack any depth at defensive end outside of veteran Leonard Little. Chris Long should project well to a 4-3 defensive end position, with the ability to be equally stout against the rush and the pass. Gholston would get some consideration here, but Long’s on the field performance and intangibles make him the pick over Gholston.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (Previous Pick: Matt Ryan) 

I have had Matt Ryan here from the start, but it appears he does not grade as a top five prospect and he would be a reach here. The Falcons, who have a multitude of round 2 picks, could likely trade back up into Round 1 to select their second ranked QB. Glenn Dorsey was dominate at LSU and would immediately step into the starting lineup for the Falcons, who released their three technique defensive tackle, Rod Coleman, in the offseason. New Falcons coach Mike Smith and new GM Thomas Dimitroff both come from teams that placed huge emphasis on the interior line and Glenn Dorsey is the best interior defensive line prospect we have seen in at least ten years. The Falcons will select Dorsey to boost their defensive line, unless they are convinced that Matt Ryan can develop into a franchise QB.

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Jake Long is back up to #1 in the Three Round War Room Report Mock Draft

Free agency is changing the mock on a daily basis, so be sure to check back every Monday for the most up to date NFL Mock Draft from the War Room Report. 

(Player, Position, College)

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick:  Chris Long)

The Dolphins would love nothing more to trade this pick and accumulate more depth. However, the high price of the first pick and the relative evenness at the top of the draft is likely to limit movement. After their moves in free agency, Miami has four options here. If Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland are not sold on John Beck, they may opt for Matt Ryan here. However, Ryan does not truly have a #1 overall pick grade and the Dolphins could get a top QB at 2.1 or by trading back into Round 1. The Dolphins could look at a pair of defenders who would fit the 3-4 defense in Chris Long and Vernon Gholston. While both are the type of player that Parcells has typically targeted, the Dolphins have a number of options on the outside. With a former offensive line coach at the helm and an offensive lack that lacks depth, the logical pick, especially given the high salary demanded by the #1 overall pick, is Michigan OT Jake Long. Long is not quite an elite offensive tackle prospect of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, but he is a player with limited downside who can contribute immediately and projects to be a long time starter at the NFL level. While some question his ability to become a Pro Bowl left tackle, he projects to be very close to that level. Selecting Long would allow the Dolphins to rebuild their line further by eventually moving Vernon Carey back to the right side or to guard.

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia (Previous pick: Jake Long)

The Rams would love to be able to secure Jake Long and would snatch him up here if he was available. However, if Jake Long is gone, the Rams are likely to turn their attention to the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis may be considered, but the Rams took Adam Carriker in Round 1 last year to play tackle and got a solid contribution from rookie DT Clifton Ryan in 2008. The Rams will be deciding between Vernon Gholston and Chris Long to play opposite of Pro Bowler Leonard Little, who is entering the end of his career. Long is a bit stouter against the rush and is a high motor, high character player that the Rams covet. He was ultra productive at Virginia playing in a 3-4 defense and projects ideally to a 4-3 defensive end at the NFL level. He should contribute immediately to a team that needs to improve the pass rush.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College  (Previous Pick: Matt Ryan)

The Michael Vick debacle has crippled the Falcons both on the field and in eyes of the public. They must rebuild their team and the ideal fit is Boston College QB Matt Ryan. Ryan led the Golden Eagles to their best season since the Doug Flutie era and could play right away if the Falcons chose to. Ryan may not have the upside of a JaMarcus Russell or Eli Manning but projects to be a solid NFL starter. There are some concerns about his interception rate, but that may be tied to the lack of receiving talent he had at Boston College. The Falcons could also address the defensive tackle position here, as they cut their three technique tackle, Rod Coleman. Both Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis would be terrific fits here. However, the Falcons would be unwise to pass on a potential franchise QB, for public image reasons as much as their on the field need.
 

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The Super Bowl and Senior Bowl are over and the 2008 Draft picture is getting clearer. The War Room Report brings to you our 2 Round 2008 NFL Mock Draft!

(Player, Position, College, Height, Weight, Draft Grade, Big Board Rank) 

1. Miami Dolphins – Chris Long, DE, Virginia, 6-4, 284, 97, #4 (Previous pick: Glenn Dorsey)

The Dolphins have many options with the first overall pick, with three defensive players that would fit their scheme well – DE Chris Long and DTs Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis. All three players would be ideal players to man the critical front of the 3-4 defense. The Dolphins could also look at OT Jake Long, who would provide an anchor on the left side of the offensive line for the development of a young quarterback. Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland may not want to start their era with QB John Beck, making Boston College QB Matt Ryan a real possibility here. With the plethora of options, the Dolphins would prefer to trade down and pick up additional picks. However, the depth of the draft will make it unlikely that a trade can be reached, and if the Dolphins stay at #1, Virginia DE Chris Long appears to be the current choice. Long, who was amazingly productive playing in a 3-4 defense at Virginia, could step in from day one and be true difference maker at the 3-4 end spot, which is rarely found. 

2. St. Louis Rams – Jake Long, OT, Michigan, 6-7, 320, 97, #3 (Previous pick: Jake Long)

The injury to Orlando Pace early in the 2007 season crippled the Rams playoff hopes. Considered a playoff sleeper by many entering the season, the Rams floundered once Alex Barron was forced to take over the left tackle role, losing starting QBs Marc Bulger and Gus Frerotte to injuries. The line was unable to open holes for Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson and gave up 48 total sacks. Pace suffered his second straight season ending injury and appears unlikely to return to his prior form. Michigan OT Jake Long is a dominating offensive tackle prospect on par with 2007 standout Joe Thomas. He played in a pro style offense at Michigan and should be able to immediately step in and protect the blind side for the Rams, much as fellow Big Ten standout Pace did for numerous years. The return of Al Saunders to the Rams could see a return to the glory days of the Greatest Show on turf, but only if the Rams can give their QB time to throw. If Long is on the board, look for the Rams to happily make the selection, however, defensive tackles Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis could be intriguing to a team that gave up the second most points in the league last season.