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Jake Long is back up to #1 in the Three Round War Room Report Mock Draft

Free agency is changing the mock on a daily basis, so be sure to check back every Monday for the most up to date NFL Mock Draft from the War Room Report. 

(Player, Position, College)

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick:  Chris Long)

The Dolphins would love nothing more to trade this pick and accumulate more depth. However, the high price of the first pick and the relative evenness at the top of the draft is likely to limit movement. After their moves in free agency, Miami has four options here. If Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland are not sold on John Beck, they may opt for Matt Ryan here. However, Ryan does not truly have a #1 overall pick grade and the Dolphins could get a top QB at 2.1 or by trading back into Round 1. The Dolphins could look at a pair of defenders who would fit the 3-4 defense in Chris Long and Vernon Gholston. While both are the type of player that Parcells has typically targeted, the Dolphins have a number of options on the outside. With a former offensive line coach at the helm and an offensive lack that lacks depth, the logical pick, especially given the high salary demanded by the #1 overall pick, is Michigan OT Jake Long. Long is not quite an elite offensive tackle prospect of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, but he is a player with limited downside who can contribute immediately and projects to be a long time starter at the NFL level. While some question his ability to become a Pro Bowl left tackle, he projects to be very close to that level. Selecting Long would allow the Dolphins to rebuild their line further by eventually moving Vernon Carey back to the right side or to guard.

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia (Previous pick: Jake Long)

The Rams would love to be able to secure Jake Long and would snatch him up here if he was available. However, if Jake Long is gone, the Rams are likely to turn their attention to the defensive line. Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis may be considered, but the Rams took Adam Carriker in Round 1 last year to play tackle and got a solid contribution from rookie DT Clifton Ryan in 2008. The Rams will be deciding between Vernon Gholston and Chris Long to play opposite of Pro Bowler Leonard Little, who is entering the end of his career. Long is a bit stouter against the rush and is a high motor, high character player that the Rams covet. He was ultra productive at Virginia playing in a 3-4 defense and projects ideally to a 4-3 defensive end at the NFL level. He should contribute immediately to a team that needs to improve the pass rush.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College  (Previous Pick: Matt Ryan)

The Michael Vick debacle has crippled the Falcons both on the field and in eyes of the public. They must rebuild their team and the ideal fit is Boston College QB Matt Ryan. Ryan led the Golden Eagles to their best season since the Doug Flutie era and could play right away if the Falcons chose to. Ryan may not have the upside of a JaMarcus Russell or Eli Manning but projects to be a solid NFL starter. There are some concerns about his interception rate, but that may be tied to the lack of receiving talent he had at Boston College. The Falcons could also address the defensive tackle position here, as they cut their three technique tackle, Rod Coleman. Both Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis would be terrific fits here. However, the Falcons would be unwise to pass on a potential franchise QB, for public image reasons as much as their on the field need.
 

4. Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State (Previous pick: Glenn Dorsey)

Oakland and Al Davis are perhaps the hardest projection in the first round. The Raiders could certainly use one of the top two defensive tackles here, despite resigning Tommy Kelly to a huge contract. The Raiders may be tempted to take Darren McFadden, but with Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Dominic Rhodes all fighting for space in a
crowded backfield, even Al Davis seems unlikely to make that move. Vernon Gholston fits the Raiders perfectly. He is a freakishly good athlete who has dominated his workouts and is a physically imposing player. He would serve an immediate need for a Raiders defense that lost pass rusher Chris Clemons. Gholston, who was flat out dominate at
times at Ohio State, has a chance to go #1 overall to Miami, but if he slips here, it seems he would the logical pick for Oakland.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State (Previous pick: Ryan Clady)

As we have repeated ad nauseam here the last two seasons, the Chiefs must address their offensive line. Once the cornerstone of the franchise, the offensive line has deteriorated dramatically in recent years due to injury, age, and free agent losses. The Chiefs fell to last in the league in rushing in 2007 and must improve their line for Brodie Croyle to have any chance of success. Clady is not quite the ideal fit for the Chiefs – they would love to get their hands on Jake Long, but appear unlikely to with St. Louis and Miami ahead of them. There is one school of thought that the Chiefs would prefer a more physical tackle here, but Clady is clearly the highest graded tackle left. He does need to improve his strength, but he has the quickness and athleticism to be a Pro Bowl left tackle. Similar to the Levi Brown pick in 2007 by Arizona, the Chiefs may be to take a need player over value to secure their offensive line.

6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (Previous pick: Darren McFadden)

The Jets are really a tough call here after addressing their big need of a pass rusher by signing Calvin Pace. The top two defensive tackles may intrigue them here, but neither seems to fit the 3-4 scheme. They may look at a cornerback, where small school stars Leodis McKelvin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would be possibilities. However, their recent moves, including signing Pace and Faneca seems to show that they have a “win now” mentality. They do have a crowded backfield with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and the recently signed Jesse Chatman. However McFadden has big play ability that the others lack. Jones was a disappointment after coming over from the Bears, averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry. Running backs typically have the biggest initial impact and in a situation where Eric Mangini needs to win now, McFadden may be the selection.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco) – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (Previous Pick: Vernon Gholston)

 Under the current regime, New England has not typically placed much importance on drafting defensive backs high in the draft. That changed in 2007 with the selection of Miami safety Brandon Merriweather and could continue here. The Patriots lost Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, and Eugene Wilson in the off-season and could use an upgrade at the corner spot opposite of Ellis Hobbs. McKelvin has gone from small school sleeper to big time prospect this season. His gambling nature would fit well in the New England scheme and he would provide an added boost in the kick return game. The other options for New England here could be a pass rusher – perhaps Derrick Harvey, after releasing Roosevelt Colvin. Such a move would allow them to keep Adalius Thomas where they prefer him, on the inside. If Gholston is here, he is likely the pick, but if not, look for the Patriots to improve their defensive backfield again.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State (Previous Pick: Brian Brohm)

The Ravens defense slipped from the top tier in 2007 due to inconsistent play at the cornerback position. Chris McAllister is slipping and is injury prone and Samari Rolle appears finished. The Ravens have little quality depth behind the two older starters and small school standout Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, one of the biggest risers in the off-season would be an ideal fit. Rodgers-Cromartie has good size and is able to handle himself in man coverage, a necessity in Rex Ryan’s scheme. For a while, Brian Brohm was the player slated for this spot, but he appears to have slipped deeper into Round One. The Ravens may also be intrigued by the top two defensive tackles, but neither fills a pressing need for Baltimore. Ozzie Newsome loves defense and has never been afraid of a small school player, so look for “DRC” to give a boost to the Ravens.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (Previous Pick: Sedrick Ellis)

Cincinnati’s defense was atrocious in 2007 and they considered moving to a 3-4 scheme under Mike Zimmer to improve. However their recent signings, including former Titan defensive end Antwan Odom, make it likely they will continue to use a 4-3 system. The Bengals would be overjoyed to see Dorsey or Ellis on the board, as both are game changing defensive tackles. Dorsey, who is perhaps the best defensive tackle prospect since Warren Sapp, was ultra productive in the SEC and has a slightly higher grade than Ellis. He would be a tremendous value at #9. The other options for the Bengals would include Keith Rivers, which would fill a need at linebacker after losing Landon Johnson, but is a bit of a reach at #9 or Derrick Harvey, if they wish to continue improving a pass rush that mustered only 22 sacks in 2007.

10. New Orleans Saints – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (Previous Pick: Leodis McKelvin)

New Orleans has addressed their two biggest needs in the off-season by adding Jonathan Vilma and gambling on Dan Morgan to improve their linebacking corps. The Saints have decided that quantity is better than quality with Randall Gay, Usama Young, Jason Craft, Fred Thomas, and Jason David all battling to start opposite of Mike McKenzie. Ellis would be a great value here for the Saints, who could use an improvement along the entire line. Ellis is an explosive pass rusher and disruptive force in the backfield, which would really transform the Saints defense. If Ellis is gone, UNC DT Kentwan Balmer may get some consideration or USC LB Keith Rivers to improve their linebackers even further. Don’t rule out an offensive player here for the offensive minded coach, especially Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart to combine with Reggie Bush.


11. Buffalo Bills – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida (Previous Pick: Derrick Harvey)

The Bills are quietly building a strong young defense with linebackers Paul Posluszny and Angelo Crowell and safety Donte Whitner. The Bills added to their defense with Kawika Mitchell but they need to improve their pass rush if they want to reach the playoffs. The Bills finished with only 26 sacks, the bulk of which came from Aaron Schobel. Chris Kelsay has been a starter for the Bills the last several years but he has never topped five sacks in a season. Harvey is a natural pass rusher who is stouter at the point of attack than his former Florida teammate Jarvis Moss. The Bills may opt for an even more physical end in Phillip Merling here, but he does not have the upside of Harvey. Other options for the Bills include addressing their need for a second receiver to play opposite of Lee Evans. However no receiver in this class truly carries a grade this high. Malcolm Kelly is commonly projected here, but he has not worked out in the off-season and could see his stock fall because of concerns about his speed.

12. Denver Broncos – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (Previous Pick: Keith Rivers)

The Broncos have addressed their needs with free agent moves, by adding Keary Colbert, Marlon McCree, and Boss Bailey. However, the retirement of Matt Lepsis has left them with question marks at their offensive tackle spots. Ryan Harris was drafted in 2007 and did not play due to injury. Erik Pears and Chris Kuper may compete for a spot, but the Broncos could use a reliable option to protect Jay Cutler. Chris Williams played with Cutler at Vanderbilt and is a smart, athletic player who would fit better in the Denver system than Jeffrey Otah. The Broncos could look at defensive tackle here with UNC’s Kentwan Balmer as well.

13. Carolina Panthers – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (Previous Pick: Kenny Phillips)

Carolina disappointed greatly in 2007, suffering through a revolving door at QB after Jake Delhomme went down. They are reshuffling their offensive line in 2008, after the unit struggled in 20007. Carolina is moving Jordan Gross from RT to LT and moving LT Travelle Wharton to OG. Otah is a high upside prospect who could eventually be a starter on the left side, but would benefit from starting on the right. He is a mauling player that fits the run first philosophy in Carolina. The Panthers also could look at a tailback here after releasing Deshaun Foster or try to rebuild their defensive line with local products Phillip Merling or Kentwan Balmer. The Panthers still need to improve at safety and tight end, but there are no players worth of this selection.

14. Chicago Bears – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois (Previous Pick: Jeff Otah)

The Bears have fallen mightily from their Super Bowl run in 2006 and have multiple needs entering the 2008 draft. They still have an unsettled situation at QB with Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton returning in 2008. Their offensive line has suffered losses and the quality of play declined dramatically in 2007. However with the top four tackle prospects off the board, the Bears will have to go another direction. Their starting receivers are currently projected to be Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker, so receiver is an option. Cedric Benson was given an opportunity to be the star in 2007 after Thomas Jones was traded but disappointed. Mendenhall is a talent back with a high upside and terrific speed for his size. The Bears are going to have to win games by grinding it out and adding Mendenhall would improve their rushing game the most, if they can’t get one of the tackles.

15. Detroit Lions – Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson (Previous pick: Calais Campbell)

Detroit’s recent moves have changed the possibilities here, as they have signed Brian Kelly and traded for Leigh Bodden, eliminating the chance that they take a corner here. They released Kevin Jones which would make Mendenhall a possibility here if he were available. The injury to Jonathan Stewart drops him down the board and like Chicago, Detroit would like an offensive tackle but with the top four off the board, must go another direction. For the Cover 2 defense to succeed, they must generate a consistent pass rush. DeWayne White played well in his first season for the Lions and Jared Devries added a solid pass rush in part time duty, but the Lions could use a more physical, every down end. Merling is not as flashy as his former teammate Gaines Adams, but he is a end who is stout at the point of attack and can generate a solid, but not elite, pass rush.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (Previous Pick: Mike Jenkins)

Antrel Rolle has been moved to his natural position of safety creating a need for the Cardinals at the cornerback position. Roderick Hood played well after coming over from the Eagles but Eric Green is probably best suited for a reserve role. Jenkins is a physical corner who is willing to play on an island in man coverage. He has good timed speed and size and projects to be a solid, if not spectacular NFL corner. Prior to Jonathan Stewart’s injury, he was a possibility here, as Edgerrin James may not have many seasons left. The Cardinals may opt for Kansas CB Aqib Talib, who has a bit more upside, but more risk than Jenkins.