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 Is Keith Rivers going to be a Top Ten Pick in the 2008 NFL Draft?

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick: Jake Long) 

Jake Long has been our projection here for the last two mocks, as the Dolphins really do not have a left tackle on the roster. Miami would love to trade down, but the depth of the draft and the high cost of paying the first overall pick are likely to limit movement. There are really only three options for Miami here, with Chris Long and Vernon Gholston, being the other options. Jake Long is ready to step right in at left tackle, allowing Vernon Carey to move back to the right side. Miami is coached by a former offensive line coach and wishes to install a power running attack that needs dominate players at the point of attack. While Jake Long may not be at the level of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, he is close to that level and has one of the lowest bust factors of any project in the class. He will be an ideal first building block for the Parcells/Ireland era.

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia  (Previous Pick: Chris Long) 

It looks likely to me that Chris Long and Jake Long go #1 and #2 in some order. The Rams would like to take Jake Long, as they have seen the importance of a solid offensive line and Orlando Pace’s future is uncertain. However, if Jake Long is gone, look for the Rams to opt for a defensive end over the top two tackle prospects. The Rams have 2007 picks Clifton Ryan and Adam Carriker inside and lack any depth at defensive end outside of veteran Leonard Little. Chris Long should project well to a 4-3 defensive end position, with the ability to be equally stout against the rush and the pass. Gholston would get some consideration here, but Long’s on the field performance and intangibles make him the pick over Gholston.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (Previous Pick: Matt Ryan) 

I have had Matt Ryan here from the start, but it appears he does not grade as a top five prospect and he would be a reach here. The Falcons, who have a multitude of round 2 picks, could likely trade back up into Round 1 to select their second ranked QB. Glenn Dorsey was dominate at LSU and would immediately step into the starting lineup for the Falcons, who released their three technique defensive tackle, Rod Coleman, in the offseason. New Falcons coach Mike Smith and new GM Thomas Dimitroff both come from teams that placed huge emphasis on the interior line and Glenn Dorsey is the best interior defensive line prospect we have seen in at least ten years. The Falcons will select Dorsey to boost their defensive line, unless they are convinced that Matt Ryan can develop into a franchise QB.

4. Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State (Previous pick: Vernon Gholston)

Early in the draft process, the Raiders were a tough projection. Their needs – along the defensive line especially, provide plenty of options here. Sedrick Ellis would make a great deal of sense here, but he may not be the type of player the Raiders target. They wouldn’t mind trading down, but again, that appears unlikely high in this draft. Darren McFadden is a possibility, but the Raiders already have a crowded backfield with Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Dominic Rhodes. Vernon Gholston is the type of athlete that the Raiders crave and drafting him would allow the Raiders to play Tommy Kelly inside full time. The Raiders just signed Kalimba Edwards, but Edwards is more of a rotational player.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State (Previous pick: Ryan Clady)

The Chiefs are also a tough projection. Jake Long is the ideal pick for the Chiefs, but it appears unlikely that he will get past the top two teams. The projection then moves to the 2^nd ranked OT in the class. Ryan Clady of Boise State is ranked #2 by most, but some feel that he does not fit the Chiefs power running attack and are projecting Jeffrey Otah, more of a mauler, to go here. However, Clady’s draft grade is clearly higher than Otah’s, and the Chiefs could really use his athleticism and versatility. Similar to the Cardinals at #5 last year, the Chiefs need at offensive tackle may outweigh the value. However, do not discount the possibility they target USC DT Sedrick Ellis here, as they could use his pressure up the middle.

6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (Previous pick: Darren McFadden) 

The Jets are another team where the value versus need proposition is going to be difficult. The Jets addressed their pass rushing need in the off-season with Calvin Pace, which would prevent a player such as Derrick Harvey being the selection here. Sedrick Ellis may be the top player on the board but he does not really fit the Jets scheme. The Jets have been building a stronger offensive line and McFadden, who is a good value here, would add another dimension to the Jets offense. He is faster than Thomas Jones, who struggled in his first season on the Jets, averaging just 3.6 yards per rush, and he is more of an every down threat than Leon Washington. The other possibility here is a cornerback, such as Leodis McKelvin or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Jets used a top pick on CB Darrelle Revis last year, but still need depth at the position. 

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco) – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (Previous Pick: Leodis McKelvin) 

The Patriots have not consistently placed a large emphasis on the cornerback position. They have found bargains later in drafts such as Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. However, the Patriots lost both of those players, in addition to Eugene Wilson in the off-season and now lack much depth at the position. They selected Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft and could use a playmaker like Leodis McKelvin in the secondary. McKelvin could also add something to the Patriots return game, and his gambling nature would fit well in the New England system.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College  (Previous Pick: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) 

If Atlanta passes on Ryan, look for Baltimore to add the Boston College signal caller.  Ryan possesses the type of leadership and intangibles that the Ravens cherish. Ryan is the type of QB who could play as a rookie and he would be effective behind Steve McNair. He led Boston College to their top season since the Doug Flutie era and while he may not be the elite QB prospect of JaMarcus Russell or Eli Manning, but he still projects to a solid NFL starter. The Ravens could also target a CB here, as their starters Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle are getting up in age and the Ravens do not have much depth behind them. 

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (Previous Pick: Glenn Dorsey) 

Cincinnati’s defense struggled mightily in 2007 and Ellis would be an ideal pick here. The Bengals added DE Antwan Odom in the off-season, and their current personnel make it likely that they will continue to use a 4-3 scheme instead of the 3-4 approach they considered in the offseason. Ellis would immediately start for the Bengals and would have likely been the top defensive tackle prospect in most every draft of recent memory, but falls here because of Glenn Dorsey. Ellis is a natural three technique tackle who has shown the ability at USC and at the Senior Bowl to consistently penetrate. Ellis would immediately be the best defensive player on the Bengals. 

10. New Orleans Saints – Keith Rivers, LB, USC (Previous Pick: Sedrick Ellis) 

The Saints would love to acquire one of the top two defensive tackles in the draft, but with the way this mock works out, both are gone. This is probably a little early for North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer, so the Saints have to look at other options. Many have the Saints projected to take a corner here, and with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the board, that may be intriguing. However, the Saints did add Randall Gay in the off-season and now have Jason David, Randall Gay, Usama Young, and Fred Thomas all available to start across from the solid Mike McKenzie. The Saints have dramatically upgraded their defense in the off-season with Jonathan Vilma in the middle, but are currently relying on the injury prone Dan Morgan to start on the weakside. Rivers would immediately supplement Morgan as the starter on the weakside and be the early favorite for defensive rookie of the year. Morgan could then compete with Scott Shanle on the strong side. 

11. Buffalo Bills – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State (Previous Pick: Derrick Harvey)

We have been projecting Derrick Harvey to the Bills through much of the process and still believe they need a defensive end, but with “DRC” falling here, the Bills may gamble on the small school standout. They have one decent corner in Terrence McGee but are still looking for Ashton Youboty to step up or an upgrade over Jabari Greer. Derrick Harvey is still a possibility here, as is one of the top physical receivers – Limas Sweed or Malcolm Kelly, but neither player really is worth of the 11^th overall selection. DRC has had a great off-season and his physical approach to the game will fit the Bills scheme perfectly. 

12. Denver Broncos – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (Previous Pick: Chris Williams) 

The Broncos have addressed many of their needs in the off-season with Keary Colbert, Marlon McCree, and Boss Bailey but could still use an upgrade at the offensive tackle position. Matt Lepsis retired and 2007 draft pick Ryan Harris didn’t get to show much due to injury. Williams protected Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt and he is a smart, athletic player who fits the Broncos zone blocking scheme better than the mauling OT Jeffrey Otah. The Broncos need a defensive tackle and may consider moving up to obtain Sedrick Ellis or could opt for Kentwan Balmer here, but Williams makes the most sense.

13. Carolina Panthers – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (Previous Pick: Jeff Otah) 

Carolina looks to reshuffle their offensive line in 2008, moving former left tackle Travelle Wharton inside and likely moving former first rounder Jordan Gross to the left side. Otah is a bit of a project that will probably project to right tackle immediately but he is a mauling prospect who still has the upside to play left tackle at the next level. The Panthers will certainly be intrigued by Florida DE Derrick Harvey here or North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer to help rebuild the defensive line that was once their strong point.

14. Chicago Bears – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois (Previous Pick: Rashard Mendenhall) 

The Bears will be looking to rebuild an offense that did them in during 2007. The Bears would ideally like to grab one of the top four offensive tackles, but with the needs of the teams in front of them, that appears unlikely to happen. The Bears would also consider a WR here, after they lost their top two receivers from 2007 in Mushin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. However, Cedric Benson is looking like a potential bust, as his performance in 2007 was dismissal. The bigger worry is that Benson has consistently rubbed his teammates and management the wrong way. Mendenhall is a complete back with the ability to step in right away, while letting Benson rush in short yardage situations.

15. Detroit Lions – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon (Previous Pick: Phillip Merling)

Now that the dust has settled a bit on the injury news about Jonathan Stewart, he appears likely to still be a first rounder. He showed his athleticism at the Scouting Combine and should be ready for the beginning of the regular season. After releasing Kevin Jones, and showing a desire to place a large emphasis on the rushing attack, Stewart makes sense. The Lions could also look at an offensive tackle here, if one were to fall, and definitely will be intrigued by the pass rushing Derrick Harvey, who is a good value at 15. However, Stewart’s upside and the need of the Lions at the position make him the pick.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (Previous Pick: Mike Jenkins) 

Antrel Rolle is moving back to his natural safety position creating a big need for the Cardinals at CB. Rod Hood did a great job after coming over from the Eagles, but the Cardinals could use an upgrade over Eric Green. Jenkins is a physical corner who is the #1 corner on some team boards and his willingness to play in man coverage will greatly benefit the Cardinals as they try to improve their pass rush. The Cardinals could also look at Aqib Talib here, but Jenkins is the more NFL ready player now.