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Sedrick Ellis moves up to the top five of the latest War Room Report Mock Draft

The 2008 NFL Draft picture is becoming clearer, and as always, the War Room Report provides one of the most accurate mock drafts on the web. Unlike other sites, we are not changing our picks solely to create a furor or bring in web hits, but only change the mock draft selections when our thorough analysis shows they are warranted. 

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Previous Pick: Jake Long) 

We have been projecting Jake Long here since very early in the draft process and now many others are coming into agreement. Miami would love to trade down, but the depth of the draft and the high cost of paying the first overall pick are likely to limit movement. There are really only three options for Miami here, with Chris Long and Vernon Gholston the others. Jake Long is ready to step right in at left tackle, allowing Vernon Carey to move back to the right side. Miami is coached by a former offensive line coach and wishes to install a power running attack that needs dominate players at the point of attack. While Jake Long may not be at the level of Joe Thomas or Orlando Pace, he is close to that level and has one of the lowest bust factors of any project in the class. He will be an ideal first building block for the Parcells/Ireland era

2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE, Virginia  (Previous Pick: Chris Long)

It looks likely to me that Chris Long and Jake Long go #1 and #2 in some order. The Rams would like to take Jake Long, as they have seen the importance of a solid offensive line and Orlando Pace’s future is uncertain. However, if Jake Long is gone, look for the Rams to opt for a defensive end over the top two tackle prospects. The Rams have 2007 picks Clifton Ryan and Adam Carriker inside and lack any depth at defensive end outside of veteran Leonard Little. Chris Long should project well to a 4-3 defensive end position, with the ability to be equally stout against the rush and the pass. Gholston would get some consideration here, but Long’s on the field performance and intangibles make him the pick over Gholston. Glenn Dorsey is the highest ranked player on the board and could get some consideration, but in the end, look for the more pressing need to be the pick for the Rams.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (Previous Pick: Glenn Dorsey)

As we mentioned in the last edition of the mock draft, despite the Falcons pressing need at QB, Matt Ryan is not worthy of this selection. The Falcons, who have a multitude of round 2 picks, could likely trade back up into Round 1 to select their second ranked QB. Glenn Dorsey was dominate at LSU and would immediately step into the starting lineup for the Falcons, who released their three technique defensive tackle, Rod Coleman, in the offseason. New Falcons coach Mike Smith and new GM Thomas Dimitroff both come from teams that placed huge emphasis on the interior line and Glenn Dorsey is the best interior defensive line prospect we have seen in at least ten years. The Falcons will select Dorsey to boost their defensive line, unless they are convinced that Matt Ryan can develop into a franchise QB, which seems unlikely at this point.

4. Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State (Previous pick: Vernon Gholston)

Many are projecting Darren McFadden here and he does make sense given the love affair Al Davis has with speedy players. However, while he is a possibility, but the Raiders already have a crowded backfield with Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Dominic Rhodes. Many are overlooking the fact that Vernon Gholston is the type of athlete that the Raiders crave and drafting him would allow the Raiders to play Tommy Kelly inside full time. Despite the rumor mill comments swirling around Gholston being overrated, his top end upside as a star defensive end is real and worthy of a top five selection.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (Previous pick: Ryan Clady)

Kansas City has been one of the toughest projections throughout the process. Their most glaring need is obvious at left tackle and the offensive line as a whole, but outside of Jake Long, the offensive line prospects on the board would be a bit of a reach here. Ryan Clady has been projected here for a number of weeks, but there is some concern that he is not an ideal fit for the Chiefs power rushing offense. Some are projecting Virginia OG/OT prospect Branden Albert here but it appears to be a bit of a reach to take a player who rarely played outside in college in the top five. Kansas City selected a pair of defensive tackle prospects in the 2007 draft but both underperformed. Ellis is the type player left on the board on defense and will be a great addition to a team that struggled to stop the run in 2007.

6. New York Jets – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (Previous pick: Darren McFadden)

The Jets are another team where the value versus need proposition is going to be difficult. The Jets addressed their pass rushing need in the off-season with Calvin Pace, which would prevent a player such as Derrick Harvey being the selection here. The Jets are still committed to Kellen Clemens so Matt Ryan does not make sense. They have a ton invested in the left side of their line, so the OT prospects seem to be off the board. The Jets have been building a stronger offensive line and McFadden, who is a good value here, would add another dimension to the Jets offense. He is faster than Thomas Jones, who struggled in his first season on the Jets, averaging just 3.6 yards per rush, and he is more of an every down threat than Leon Washington. The other possibility here is a cornerback, such as Leodis McKelvin or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Jets used a top pick on CB Darrelle Revis last year, but still need depth at the position.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco) – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (Previous Pick: Leodis McKelvin)

New England would love to be able to trade down. Their main area of need is LB, but there is not a natural 3-4 LB here if Gholston is gone. Derrick Harvey is a terrific player and may be an option, but Harvey does not truly project to a 3-4 OLB position. The Patriots have not consistently placed a large emphasis on the cornerback position. They have found bargains later in drafts such as Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. However, the Patriots lost both of those players, in addition to Eugene Wilson in the off-season and now lack much depth at the position. They selected Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft and could use a playmaker like Leodis McKelvin in the secondary. McKelvin could also add something to the Patriots return game, and his gambling nature would fit well in the New England system. The other realistic possibility for the Patriots is to add to their offensive line with one of the two players that could represent value here – Branden Albert or Ryan Clady.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College  (Previous Pick: Matt Ryan)

If Atlanta passes on Ryan, look for Baltimore to add the Boston College signal caller.  Ryan possesses the type of leadership and intangibles that the Ravens cherish. Ryan is the type of QB who could play as a rookie and he would be effective behind Steve McNair. He led Boston College to their top season since the Doug Flutie era and while he may not be the elite QB prospect of JaMarcus Russell or Eli Manning, but he still projects to a solid NFL starter. The Ravens could also target a CB here, as their starters Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle are getting up in age and the Ravens do not have much depth behind them. Like New England, the Ravens could look for a long term option at left tackle to replace Jonathan Ogden, specifically Ryan Clady, if they are not convinced Ryan is a franchise QB prospect.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida (Previous Pick: Sedrick Ellis)

Cincinnati’s defense struggled mightily in 2007 against both the run and the pass. The Bengals added DE Antwan Odom in the off-season, and their current personnel make it likely that they will continue to use a 4-3 scheme instead of the 3-4 approach they considered in the offseason. They would love to see Sedrick Ellis fall here, but if he doesn’t Derrick Harvey would add another dimension to the Bengals pass rush. Teaming him with free agent signing Odom, and Cincinnati would be a team to be feared for opposing passers. The Bengals certainly could look at Keith Rivers here to become their new leader on defense at the linebacker position or Ryan Clady as a long term solution at left tackle to replace Willie Anderson.

10. New Orleans Saints – Keith Rivers, LB, USC (Previous Pick: Keith Rivers)

The Saints would love to acquire one of the top two defensive tackles in the draft, but with the way this mock works out, both are gone. This is probably a little early for North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer, so the Saints have to look at other options. Many have the Saints projected to take a corner here, and with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the board, that may be intriguing. However, the Saints did add Randall Gay in the off-season and now have Jason David, Randall Gay, Usama Young, and Fred Thomas all available to start across from the solid Mike McKenzie. The Saints have dramatically upgraded their defense in the off-season with Jonathan Vilma in the middle, but are currently relying on the injury prone Dan Morgan to start on the weakside. Rivers would immediately supplement Morgan as the starter on the weakside and be the early favorite for defensive rookie of the year. Morgan could then compete with Scott Shanle on the strong side.

11. Buffalo Bills – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State (Previous Pick: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie)

Many were projecting Malcolm Kelly here for the longest time, but our concerns about his lack of foot speed were validated. There are no other WRs worthy of this selection and now that Derrick Harvey is off the board, the Bills have to target a cornerback. They have one decent corner in Terrence McGee but are still looking for Ashton Youboty to step up or an upgrade over Jabari Greer. DRC has had a great off-season and his physical approach to the game will fit the Bills scheme perfectly. The Bills could consider Mike Jenkins a better overall player, but their high emphasis on character may make them shy away from the SF Bulls corner.

12. Denver Broncos – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State (Previous Pick: Chris Williams)

The Broncos have addressed many of their needs in the off-season with Keary Colbert, Marlon McCree, and Boss Bailey but could still use an upgrade at the offensive tackle position. Matt Lepsis retired and 2007 draft pick Ryan Harris didn’t get to show much due to injury. We have been targeting Chris Williams to the Broncos for a while but now with Clady falling to this position, Denver should jump on a true franchise left tackle prospect. Even if Denver thinks Chris Kuper or Harris could be long term solutions, Clady is too valuable to pass up here for a team that hopes to not be drafting this high in years to come. Denver would love to add a defensive tackle, but like Cincinnati and New Orleans, will be stuck if Ellis and Dorsey are off the board. Do not rule out a trade up for the Broncos.

13. Carolina Panthers – Branden Albert, OG/OT, Virginia (Previous Pick: Jeff Otah)

Carolina looks to reshuffle their offensive line in 2008, moving former left tackle Travelle Wharton inside and likely moving former first rounder Jordan Gross to the left side. Branden Albert is a fast rising prospect who some are now considering as a potential left tackle prospect. He would be an interesting fit for the Panthers and give them more versatility. Albert could play right tackle this year while he gets fully acclimated to the position before moving to the left side in 2009. The Panthers could opt for the more powerful Jeffrey Otah here as well, but Albert seems to fit their scheme better.

14. Chicago Bears – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (Previous Pick: Rashard Mendenhall)

The Bears will be looking to rebuild an offense that did them in during 2007. The best place to start is along the offensive line. Despite the constant criticism of Cedric Benson, he actually ended the year with a higher average yard per carry than the other backs. The Bears also struggled to protect the QB so adding an offensive tackle here would be huge. Otah could start on the right side in 2008 for the Bears with John Tait playing on the blind side, as Otah can develop a bit more before being given that responsibility. He is a physical player who fits the Bears power rushing scheme better than Chris Williams. If Chicago has really had enough of Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall could be the pick here. Chicago also could consider a WR here, after they lost their top two receivers from 2007 in Mushin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. They would have their pick of receivers here, but the value at the position in Round 1, such as Devin Thomas and Desean Jackson are not NFL ready immediately.

15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois (Previous Pick: Jonathan Stewart)

The Lions are likely to find a number of attractive options here at pick 15. They would love Derrick Harvey if he is on the board, but with him going slightly higher, they have to target two other main areas of need. They have needed a successful MIKE backer in the Cover 2 scheme for a number of seasons after relying on Paris Lenon. Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo is a perfect fit for the Cover 2 scheme and Rod Marinelli may be intriguied by his potential. However, after releasing Kevin Jones and dedicating themselves to running the ball much more, it would be difficult for the Lions to pass on Mendenhall here. Mendenhall is top tier talent that would immediately give the Lions a huge boost on offense.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (Previous Pick: Mike Jenkins)

Antrel Rolle is moving back to his natural safety position creating a big need for the Cardinals at CB. Rod Hood did a great job after coming over from the Eagles, but the Cardinals could use an upgrade over Eric Green. Jenkins is a physical corner who is the #1 corner on some team boards and his willingness to play in man coverage will greatly benefit the Cardinals as they try to improve their pass rush. The Cardinals could also look at Aqib Talib here, but Jenkins is the more NFL ready player now. Arizona may consider Jonathan Stewart who would be a great addition with Edgerrin James likely to only have one or two solid years left, but the need at CB is too pressing.